10 states and 413 delegates are on the line tomorrow, Save Jerseyans.
Most experts are still expecting a “split decision” of sorts, but they’ll also concede the fact that Governor Romney is surging following last week’s victories in WA, WY, MI and AZ, both nationally and where it matters most – in delegate rich primary states. Who “wins” tomorrow is, of course, a matter of perception. Not one of these ten contensts is “winner takes all” like AZ or NJ; everyone will walk away with something and the battle will go on.
Feeling a little overwhelmed by it all? Fear not!
A not-so-brief overview of tomorrow’s action is below the fold…
- Ohio (66) – An open proportional primary and the largest symbolic prize of tomorrow’s contest. Why? It’s a diverse, economically-challenged rust belt state that is guaranteed to be a battleground in the general election. Santorum had led there until the past few days; PPP has Romney up +1 and Rasmussen puts Santorum on top by +1. Currently, Romney leads the RCP average by +0.2%. It’s going to be close, but I’m predicting a Romney raw vote win since his ‘mo appears to be peaking at exactly the right time. Romney also starts with a 9 delegate advantage in Ohio because Santorum failed to file delegate slates in three congressional districts.
- Tennessee (58) – An open proportional primary where Rick Santorum’s polling lead has collapsed; a new poll shows Romney up by +1. Both men are likely to walk away with delegates; Gingrich hopes to poach some here, too.
- Oklahoma (43) – A closed proportional primary where recent polls showed Santorum with a healthy lead… like in Tennessee. The most recent public polling from a major national outfit is over a week old. I suspect the margin has also closed here, but by enough to help Mitt mount a comeback? I’m not sure; this is probably Santorum’s best hope for a raw vote total score tomorrow. However, the “closed” nature of the primary may aid Romney who seems to do the worst among Democrat cross-over voters of all primary contenders.
- Idaho (32) – a closed proportional caucus where no public polling has been conducted but Romney will almost certainly do well because (1) it’s closed to dems/indies and (2) up to 30% of participants will be Mormon. Again, Newt will try to poach some support in very conservative rural districts.
- Massachusetts (41) – An open proportional caucus; Romney has a wide lead in the state where he served as governor and is likely to win the raw vote total. Advantage: Romney.
- Virginia (49) – An open hybrid primary where only Romney and Paul are on the ballot; Romney has built up a large raw vote lead in just about every poll. All polls, in fact.
- Georgia (76) – An open proportional primary where Newt Gingrich holds a comfortable polling lead in his(former) home state. Advantage: Gingrich.
- North Dakota (28) – A closed non-binding caucus where no public polls have been conducted. Romney is putting a lot of energy into it… figuratively and literally (it’s a state where domestic exploration is a big issue). That said, this state also has the lowest unemployment of any other in the Union. Romney does better in states where the economy is issue numero uno.
- Alaska (27) – A closed proportional caucus where no public polls have been conducted. Most of the GOP establishment is with Romney; former Governor Palin’s husband is with Gingrich. Even former U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller’s wife weighed in for Ron Paul. Since it’s closed and Santorum lacks any institutional support (it’s expensive for his bare-bones campaign to play up there), I wouldn’t be shocked to see a Romney victory here tomorrow.
- Vermont (17) – An open hybrid primary where Romney, the unashamed New Englander, holds a large lead in a state that borders his own. Advantage: Romney.
…an my prediction(s) for tomorrow?
I think there’s a good chance (but not guaranteed, by any means) that Romney wins the raw vote total everywhere except Oklahoma and Georgia tomorrow. Of course, because of the new “proportional system” adopted by most states this cycle, it’s nearly impossible to predict how many delegates this will net Romney.
Newt Gingrich will likely continue provided he holds on to GA by the expected margin of victory; it’s a big delegate state and, combined with his prior win in SC, he may have a rationale to push on and contest AL, MS, and other deep south destinations. He’s also stubborn as all hell. But can he win with that and that alone? No, although he can be a power broker at the convention is Romney falls short of the requisite number of delegates before arriving in Tampa. Who knows what he’s after… all that’s clear is his determination to stay relevant.
Santorum’s path is arguably no less difficult if he loses Ohio; expectations were sky-high for him there. Gingrich is probably banking on a “third resurrection” if Santorum is trampled in Ohio and in Tennessee tomorrow. Realistic? Again, not really. But money and millions of supporters, however modest in relative terms, can do wonders for a man’s ego!
