New Monmouth Poll: Romney Trails Nationwide by 3-Points

Patrick Murray’s Monmouth University Poll is out with new national presidential campaign survey results; they suggest a modest but significantly expanded lead for the President from its last poll:

Currently, Obama holds a 7 point lead over Romney (48% to 41%) among all registered voters and a 3 point lead (48% to 45%) among likely voters. That compares to slimmer margins of 4 points and one point, respectively, in mid-August before both parties’ nominating conventions.

And what effect is the Middle East having on these numbers?

Fully 9-in-10 likely voters have heard about the recent violence and protests at U.S. embassies in Africa and the Middle East, including 61% who have heard a lot about this and 29% who have heard a little. When asked about the two presidential contenders’ public response to the situation, 39% of likely voters approve of how Obama has handled the situation to 27% who disapprove, with the remainder being unaware of the president’s response. Opinion is more divided on how Mitt Romney has dealt with the situation – just 25% of likely voters approve of the GOP nominee’s response to 29% who disapprove. The poll also found that a majority (51%) of likely voters trust Obama more than Romney (42%) to handle the nation’s foreign policy.

No surprise there, Save Jerseyans! Especially considering how the media has obsessively focused on Mitt’s response instead of scrutinizing the sitting Administration’s policies.

The likely voter sample in this survey was 31% Republican, 35% Democrat, and 34% Independent. Whether that sample is an accurate reflection of November 2012 turnout is, of course, speculative. Any likely voter turnout model is an educated guess at best and, as is the case with some polls (not all), an overt, partisan attempt to influence public perception. Regular readers know we’ve discussed the all-important voter ID composition issue at-length right here at Save Jersey. Draw your own conclusions — at first glance, Monmouth’s sample appears much more realistic than others I’ve seen this cycle.

 

Matt Rooney
About Matt Rooney 8405 Articles
MATT ROONEY is SaveJersey.com's founder and editor-in-chief, a practicing New Jersey attorney, and the host of 'The Matt Rooney Show' on 1210 WPHT every Sunday evening from 7-10PM EST.

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