Only 13 days left to go before Election Day 2012, Save Jerseyans.
And guess what? As I sat down to prepare my latest Electoral College projection, I once again realized why Barack Obama looked so desperate — and Romney so calm by comparison — at Monday’s final presidential debate. Mitt Romney is winning this race. Is it in the bag? No, but the President is about a week away from the point of no return. Did the last debate help him at all? I doubt it; we’ll know for sure later today since the Wednesday tracking poll results include the first post-debate sample.
Where did we stand on debate eve?
Five (5) states changed hands: two (2) moved in the President’s direction, and three (3) moved towards Governor Romney. Overall, Mitt Romney gained a net of ten (10) electoral votes since our last survey, and Barack Obama netted six (6). Eighteen (18) are still complete toss-ups. I’ll explain these developments below the fold….
ROMNEY 267, OBAMA 243 **
- Missouri (10)
- North Carolina (15)
- Arizona (11)
- Montana (3)
Lean Romney: 61 EV
- Florida (29)
- Colorado (9)
- Virginia (13)
- Iowa (6) –> Moved from “Toss up” to “Lean Romney”
- New Hampshire (4) –> Moved from “Toss up” to “Lean Romney”
Toss Up: 28 EV
- Ohio (18)
- Wisconsin (10)
Lean Obama: 59 EV
- Pennsylvania (20)
- Nevada (6) –> Moved from “Toss up” to “Lean Obama”
- Michigan (16)
- Oregon (7)
- Minnesota (10) –> Moved from “Likely Obama” to “Lean Obama”
Likely Obama: 42 EV
- Maine (4*) –> Moved from “Lean Obama” to “Likely Obama”
- Washington (12)
- New Mexico (5)
- New Jersey (14)
- Connecticut (7)
Mixed. Obviously public polling is my #1 resource (with some private polling info sprinkled in as I come across it from sources). I am not relying on the RCP average, however, because I refuse to consider biased mainstream polls with huge, better-than-2008 Democrat turnout models. +2 Dem in Ohio? Okay +11? Nope! They’re stripped out. I’m also relying on (1) general national/regional trends for 2012, (2) recent historical data/trends, and (3) non-polling info that I’ve either (A) read online just like you, or (B) obtained from a reliable first or second person source. This is half-science, half-art. But what isn’t?
I don't agree that Nevada is lost. Obama probably needed more Democrats just to make up for the ones he's lost since 2008. More registrants doesn't mean Clark County is coming out heavy.
PA is a toss up.
I hope and pray that you're right, Matt!
I also don't think that Nevada is a loss. The 2010 election there resulted in Harry Reid being reelected to the Senate while Reid's son running for governor lost big time.
Remember back in 2004? Kerry was in the lead in the polls, come election day Bush WON………………
Not really. At this point in '04, Bush led in the RCP average by 1.5pts. Today, Romney leads by 0.6pts. This is a "lean Romney" race though not over by any means…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/pres…
It's not lost for Romney, but I think he has a very uphill climb in the state. 2010 was a pretty ideal turnout model for the GOP, and the voter registration composition has changed since then. 2012 will be better than 2008. 2010 good? Eh…
Ditto!
PPP reversed that Iowa poll. It is now +1 Obama, not +1 Romney.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/IowaP…
And that's not the least bit suspicious… LOL.