Save Jersey Electoral College Projection Map (11/2/12): ROMNEY 285, OBAMA 197
Only 4 full days left to go before Election Day 2012 is decided, Save Jerseyans.
Where does the White House race stand?
Seven (7) states changed position since our last projection on October 24th, and all of them moved in Governor Romney’s direction. Overall, Mitt Romney gained a net of eighteen (18) electoral votes over the past week and Barack Obama lost forty-six (46). Fifty-six (56) are still complete toss-ups, but the winds down the stretch clearly favor Governor Romney.
You’ll also notice a common thread this week: early voting analysis. Why? Larger numbers of Americans are doing it every year. I’m still operating under the educated assumption that many national and state polls are skewed (badly) by using 2008 turnout models. Even in those polls, however, Obama is locked in a close, margin-of-error race despite projected favorable Democrat turnout conditions… not good for him!
THEREFORE, my Save Jersey map assumes Obama is in knee-deep electoral doo-doo anywhere (1) early voting is way down, particularly in his key counties, and (2) the President continues to poll well below the 50% mark (since undecideds this late in the game typically don’t vote at all or break in high percentages to the challenger). Mitt’s ground game is as good or better this time according to most reliable sources. Obama needs at least an Election 2008-ish turnout to stay competitive considering how poorly his early vote operations is performing…
I’ll explain these latest developments below the fold….
ROMNEY 285, OBAMA 197 **
- Missouri (10)
North Carolina (15)–> from “Likely Romney” to “Safe Romney”
- Arizona (11)
- Montana (3)
- Florida (29) –> from “Lean Romney” to “Likely Romney”
- Virginia (13) –> from “Lean Romney” to “Likely Romney”
Lean Romney: 19 EV
- Colorado (9)
- Iowa (6)
- New Hampshire (4)
- Ohio (18) –> from “Toss Up” to “Lean Romney“
Toss Up: 56 EV
- Wisconsin (10)
- Pennsylvania (20) –> from “Lean Obama” to “Toss Up“
- Minnesota (10) –> from “Lean Obama” to “Toss Up“
- Michigan (16) –> from “Lean Obama” to “Toss Up“
Lean Obama: 13 EV
- Nevada (6)
- Oregon (7)
Likely Obama: 42 EV
- Maine (4*)
- Washington (12)
- New Mexico (5)
- New Jersey (14)
- Connecticut (7)
One (1) competitive congressional district (ME-2) might go for Mitt Romney, and because of unique state rules, that elector would go to Romney. The GOP “Restore Our Future” PAC recently made a $300k ad buy up there…
Mixed. Obviously public polling is my #1 resource (with some private polling info sprinkled in as I come across it from sources). I am not relying on the RCP average, however, because I refuse to consider biased mainstream polls with huge, better-than-2008 Democrat turnout models. +2 Dem in Ohio? Okay +11? Nope! They’re stripped out. I’m also relying on (1) general national/regional trends for 2012, (2) recent historical data/trends, and (3) non-polling info that I’ve either (A) read online just like you, or (B) obtained from a reliable first or second person source. This is half-science, half-art. But what isn’t?