When it comes to political prognostications for Election 2012, I fall somewhere in between the extremes of Nate Silver (“Obama’s reelection is inevitable”) and Dick Morris (“Romney’s landslide is inevitable”). Karl Rove is probably right to expect a healthy but by no means 1984-esque Romney win next Tuesday. Landslides are hard to predict even immediately before they materialize. It’s a lot like a tsunami at sea, insofar as you can’t tell it’s there over open water until the killer wave is just about to reach the shoreline and the tide rolls back…
But I’ll tell you what, Save Jerseyans: when I observe certain signs (and there are plenty of them this year) of unusual Democrat concern, I can’t help but take notice and wonder what’s out there. And those signs are indeed out there this year. One anecdotal example? New Jersey’s deep blue First Congressional District where veteran U.S. Rep. Rob Andrews (D), an 11-term incumbent, is running television ads for the first time that I can remember…
httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSbQjQKIcc8
If you’re not impressed, take note that New Jersey’s First Congressional District is a D+12. Andrews is regularly reelected by large margins. His lowest showing in recent memory was in 2010 when he netted 63% of the vote, and that was in the “Tea Party” cycle. Even then, he didn’t take to the airwaves.
You can cite the Congressman’s ethical issues as an explanation if you wish. I’m less convinced given how little mainstream media attention those allegations have received. Alternatively, one thing Mr. Silver and Mr. Morris both concede is the possibility that the President is faring much more poorly in “blue” states in 2012 than in 2008. I’m not suggesting Andrews is likely to lose, but we’ll see what Obama’s blue state woes mean for the House in just five days. Shelley Adler isn’t even close is what was supposed to be “competitive” neighboring NJ-3. Could it be a red wave?
Amen, brother. P.S. I think you meant "red" wave at the end there.