New Poll: Some Democrats Return Home to Buono But Key Race Dynamics Remain the Same
By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog
The big news in New Jersey politics today is yet another poll from the Monmouth Polling Institute, Save Jerseyans.
Patrick Murray’s outfit found Chris Christie’s lead reduced by 10-points from its last survey; the GOP incumbent presently enjoys a 56% to 36% lead whereas he was up by 30-points (61% to 31%) in June 2013.
Buono’s campaign understandably trumpeted the new results in a breathless, spin-intensive email to supporters:
A new poll that just came out showed our campaign has cut into Chris Christie’s lead by 10% – because once people hear about Barbara and Milly, they support us. Here is the thing, though – Chris Christie has the support that he does because people don’t know anything about Barbara. The poll said that “some voters say they plan to vote for Christie reluctantly because they don’t know anything about Buono, a state senator from Middlesex County…”
That’s half true, Save Jerseyans.
10-points sounds big, right?
But just like in the game of football, not all yards are made equal. It depends which yards we’re talking about, right? And Barbara Buono didn’t just advance from the incumbent’s 15 to inside his 5 yard line; the Democrat challenger moved from her own 40 to the 50 yard line… improvement, sure, but still safely out of field goal range.
Chris Christie’s deep personal popularity is the primary reason why he was polling so strongly from right out of the gate in this gubernatorial contest. Buono, for her part, was unable to make headway in a state that Barack Obama and Bob Menendez won by almost 20-points last fall because (1) she’s a horrible candidate (2) running a horrible campaign with (3) poor name recognition. Of course there are other variables at work, too, but those are the major points drivers to date.
Frankly, Barbara Buono had absolutely nowhere to go but up given the composition of the Garden State’s electorate where Dems boast a nearly 700,000 voter registration advantage. Now she is going up – significantly but predictably – as mass media outlets slowly begin to cover the race and Democrat-leaning voters return home.
That doesn’t mean Barbara Buono is really winning where she desperately needs to make headway, folks. Don’t make the mistake of conflating the key indicators. Buono is gaining but not truly “catching up” because Democrats are coming home alone. Chris Christie was never really winning by 30.
Monmouth’s data tables are telling. Buono currently owns 71% of Democrats in her corner; Monmouth found only 59% willing to support her candidacy in June, a stunningly low showing for any party nominee right after securing the nomination. Governor Christie is still winning better than 1 out of every 5 Democrats, and on the independent voter battle front, Christie is still winning 64% of unaffiliateds. 90% of Republicans continue to back his reelection, too, combining to generate his current 20-point lead.
“The trend suggests that New Jersey Democrats are coming back home,” opined Patrick Murray. “But it’s not quite enough for Buono to overcome Christie’s sizable advantage among independents.”
Agreed. All today’s news buys Buono – at most – is a first down (to build on my football analogy). She can attempt to reset her campaign by making some changes, claiming, progress, and trying to leverage it all into fresh donations/voter contacts. I just wouldn’t count on it given what we’ve seen from the soon-to-be-former Middlesex state senator thus far in the cycle. Her abilities as a candidate (or lack thereof) also haven’t changed.
Ask a Christie insider and they’ll tell you their goal is to win “by double digits.” I’ve gotten the same answer for months. 20-points is still double-digits, folks. If a poll in early October shows Buono within 10, then you might see their blood pressure tick up. Not a moment before.
Click here to read the full polling report and data tables.
he was up alright before his temper tantrum with Rand Paul
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