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Monmouth Poll: MacArthur Up Big On Lonegan

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

MacArthurA new poll from Patrick Murray’s Monmouth polling outfit seems to confirm the results of a recent internal MacArthur campaign showing Steve Lonegan’s opponent building a significant lead (46% to 35%) among likely voters in the CD3 primary, Save Jerseyans:

“MacArthur recently received the endorsement of outgoing Congressman Jon Runyan. MacArthur holds a 53% to 32% advantage among CD03 Republicans who strongly approve of the job that Runyan has done during his two terms in the House of Representatives and has a similar 48% to 31% edge among those who somewhat approve of Runyan. Among those who disapprove of Runyan’s performance, though, Lonegan has a lead of 51% to 31%, but this group makes up a very small proportion of the electorate. Overall, 34% of likely CD03 GOP voters strongly approve of Runyan’s tenure in Congress and another 34% approve somewhat, while just 17% disapprove.”

Click here to read the full results.


68 comments on “Monmouth Poll: MacArthur Up Big On Lonegan

  1. FJL CD3 2014 says:

    “….among Republicans that strongly approve of the job that Runyan has done during his two terms” tells the story between the lines of spin.

    Stating that “a small portion of the electorate” disapprove of Runyan’s performance” is disingenuous, because only likely REPUBLICAN primary voters were polled…Congressional approval is at an all-time low.

    They are unlikely to generate even 10% of the District Republicans at the polls…and certainly nowhere near that State-wide.

    More of the “dominant two-party” fiction we’ve all been fed for decades.

    Being king of those who choose party over principle versus those who will vote in November that weren’t asked is like comparing Randolph to a Congressional District. Independent voters outnumber both Democrats and Republicans – but have only ever believed they had to choose on or the other…no longer. You can change their name to “Unaffiliated” to try to marginalize the impact of those who are neither D nor R, but the reality on the ground is the real story.

    “Among People who approve me, I’m the front-runner” push polls are a part of campaign dialogue, but you never do see the scripted questions asked, do you.

    “Is it true you no longer beat your wife?”

    You do have a fiscal conservative, social moderate already on the ballot in November, regardless of what happens on June 3rd.

  2. Joe Howarth says:

    Keep going Tom!!

  3. Carl says:

    Hey idiot, the electorate in the context of the poll IS likely Republican voters, that’s how this works. Are you slow?

  4. duker61 says:

    Carl, Read again.. “among CD03 Republicans who strongly approve of the job that Runyan has done”. To me this means they are cherry picking numbers. Runyan was considered too liberal by conservative republicans. The same republicans likely to vote for Lonegan. What are the results of “all” likely republican voters? I suspect those numbers aren’t as favorable to MacAuthur.

  5. Noonan! says:

    The favorable and unfavorable ratings, when combined with the name ID is pretty interesting. Both are relatively soft, given that 50% of the likely voters don’t know anything about either candidate. Then again I am not a fan of the methodology of this poll, three days is way too long to do a single poll. Two is the number to be at.

  6. Carl says:

    well for one, that has no bearing on what “electorate” means in the above context. If you actually clicked through and read the poll, this would be clear. And sure, the numbers aren’t as favorable but I’ll take 11 points with 2 1/2 weeks to go.

    Say, isn’t that the number Lonegan lost by last time?

    • Rufus O. says:

      Hey, it was a lot less than one of your lame liberal Republicans (Joe Kyrillos) lost by the year before, and not against a Democratic Rock Star like Cory Booker, but a relatively unpopular incumbent Senator at that.

      • Carl says:

        Only losers debate about who lost by more, have at it hoss

        • Rufus O. says:

          It reinforces the point that our best chance of winning elections lies in running more conservative candidates. But we can’t get that through the heads of the RINO-led NJ GOP establishment, which you are probably a part of. Barring Lonegan, it’s been … what, over 30 years of RINO candidates for U.S. Senate, and they all got trounced. Yet no one ever learns. I swear, it’s almost as if they have no desire to win. Conservative or libertarian minded candidates will get people who sit on the sidelines to get out and vote and attract funding from national organizations such as FreedomWorks and Tea Party Express. Liberals like Joe Kyrillos & Dick Zimmer generate little more than voter apathy and absolutely ZERO national attention. But hey, if you want to keep on losing, by all means keep forcing your RINOs down our throats.

  7. Rufus O. says:

    Mr. LaVergne is likely to get my vote if Lonegan loses. I don’t vote for puppets.

    • Carl says:

      Please do vote for him. I would hate to have something in common with you.

      • Rufus O. says:

        Well, there’s a few things that I already know you don’t have in common with me. I listen to every perspective of an issue before I make up my mind. I also can think for myself and don’t ask “How high?” when corrupt sleazy party bosses Georgy Porgy Gilmore & Little Willy Layton tell me to jump.

    • Jim Granelli says:

      So, Rufus; you would vote for someone MORE liberal than McArthur because you didn’t get your wittle way???

      • Rufus O. says:

        How about I don’t want someone in office who’s going to suck up to the party bosses by helping their law firms make more money to their law firms and hooking up the politically connected hacks with no-show jobs? What, you thought Gilmore & Layton were saints, not the evil power-hungry leeches that they really are? Besides, we have no idea who the real Tom MacArthur is. All we know is that he has attacked Steve Lonegan for wanting to cut spending and has opposed the plan he supports to simplify and reform the tax code … and by doing that without declaring support for an alternative, outing himself as a supporter of progressive taxation with loopholes for big corporations in the process.

      • FJL CD3 2014 says:

        Liberal my narrow ass.

        • FJL CD3 2014 says:

          R/O – thanks, and I look forward to your reactions in July…You’re going to love what’s coming.

          Sorry about my lack of erudition, above – I meant….Exactly what I said.

  8. Meh says:

    Hate to say it, but look closely at Jon’s record. He basically only recycled adlers stuff. If you want an Adler II/Runyan 3.0 go for MacArthur. Runyans a good guy but pretty ineffective leader with a spotty track record.

  9. Meh says:

    Also, I forgot to mention. Does it strike anyone as odd that Runyan just this past year endorsed Lonegan in his senate bid against booker? Super odd that he all of the sudden pivoted after a few months. Oh well. Prob was paid off like the ocean and Burlington county GOP establishment.

    • Carl says:

      Right, because all elections and campaigns are exactly the same. I can see how that makes the endorsement difficult to get your head around.

    • Rufus O. says:

      Just shows you that it doesn’t matter how much money you have: with the mob mentality that is all too prevalent in establishment politics, you either do what the Godfathers (Gilmore & Layton) tell you to do, or you sleep with the fishes.

  10. Anonymous says:

    How did we end up with the two least qualified candidates in the entire state running for the only swing seat? I can’t tell where the NJGOP failed harder, getting a candidate for CD3 or US Senate. Either way though, we should all be furious with their lack of leadership without a Christie at the top of the ballot.

  11. Meh says:

    Couldn’t agree with anonymous more. Also I think a senate race and congressional race only 8 months apart would not constitute enough time to pivot so quickly. So yes, it is hard for me to know why the sudden change of heart occurred. I mean, the senate race was much more high profile. If you liked Lonegan in a race with a very popular and well liked opponent, you must have had strong enough belief in longest to publicly endorse. No going out for tom is very odd and disingenuous. But again, anon hit the nail on the head. The GOP failed us. And gave us two very unattractive candidates. And not from the district. I’d rather have a local gal who is a moderate D, then either of these two unqualified misfits.

    • Rufus O. says:

      Only Belgard, who has declared Nancy Pelosi to be her political role model, is far from a moderate. She is also on record as supporting Obamacare, which any true moderate Democrat in Congress opposed.

    • Carl says:

      Wow its really amazing how you two share so many of the same thoughts on this, its almost like you’re the same person!

      And if you think 8 months is a very short amount of time I suggest you stay away from politics. It was more than enough time for Lonegan to run an awful campaign that only embarrassed himself and those that publicly supported him. He’s a few reasons Runyan may have changed his mind:

      1. Racist tweets
      2. Sexist rants
      3. Murder scene press conferences
      4. “bodies in the passaic”


  12. El Conchristiedor says:

    If Alieta Eck was running, instead of TMac, in the third district primary Lonegan would likely have the organization lines as well as alot more endorsements, including Runyan. OTOH, had Jay Webber, Jon Bramnick or some other Establishment Republican run against Lonegan in last year’s primary it’s a safe bet Lonegan would not have the organization lines or Runyan’s endorsement.

  13. Elaine Marsden via Facebook says:

    Is that poll as reliable as this one? Ha! If you like your NJ taxes, you can keep your NJ taxes. Can’t wait to relocate in a couple of years.

    • FJL CD3 2014 says:

      “There are liars, damned liars, and statisticians” – Samuel Langhorne Clemens….(“Mark Twain”)

  14. Carl says:

    Yes disbelieving polls is a brilliant strategy. Maybe you can hire Baghdad Bob as the new Lonegan spokesperson?

  15. […] to have Tea Party-affiliated candidate Steve Lonegan on the ballot in November or (2) having internalized the polls showing MacArthur leading, they’d rather try to help make the contest as painful as possible down the stretch by […]

  16. […] been released; that one from Patrick Murray’s Monmouth University Polling Institute found MacArthur up by 11. An internal MacArthur campaign poll from earlier in May found its candidate up […]

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