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Poll Memo: MacArthur Takes 9pt Lead

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Tom MacArthur greets a young supporter

Tom MacArthur greets a young supporter

Heads up, Save Jerseyans: a new internal poll from the CD3 campaign of Tom MacArthur suggests that he now has an edge on opponent Steve Lonegan in one of this year’s hottest (some would say “ugliest”) national Republican House primaries.

If it’s accurate, the “swing” reflected in these numbers is objectively impressive regardless of which horse you claim in this race.

Click here to view the polling memorandum obtained exclusively by Save Jersey. It details survey results from veteran New Jersey GOP pollster Adam Geller; his firm conducted interviews with 400 likely GOP Primary voters in CD3 this week, and he says the results show MacArthur leading Lonegan 37% to 28% after trailing Lonegan in internal polling by 50%-7% only several weeks ago.

Buoyed by what his campaign views as major numeric progress ahead of the upcoming primary vote, MacArthur appears to be enjoying his strongest week since the conclusion of convention season, having received “contender” status from the NRCC’s prestigious Young Guns program on Monday.

Meanwhile, losing the TV ad spending war by at least 3-to-1 by some early estimates (MacArthur had over $1.5 million more cash on hand than his adversary at the end of Q1), the Lonegan campaign continued to doggedly push a story line pertaining to three legal actions involving MacArthur’s old company, York Risk Services, one which has been parroted by allies in the national conservative media. Team Lonegan now says that MacArthur’s threat of legal action, in of itself, is validation of their potentially defamatory allegations.

“Like Hillary Clinton, MacArthur claim this is some right wing conspiracy,” said Lonegan spokesman Tim Kelly. “Does he believe that ABC News, the Burlington County Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, and so many other papers and news sources are part of this conspiracy? Each source has reported on how York delayed, mistreated, and failed to pay claims of the victims of tragedies.”

You can click here to read the responsive letter from the Lonegan campaign’s attorneys.

Steve Lonegan announcing his candidacy in CD3

Steve Lonegan announcing his candidacy in CD3

Team Lonegan is also aggressively fielding a radio spot accusing MacArthur of supporting state-run health care, a charge which MacArthur vehemently denies, countering that he backs full repeal of Obamacare (shameless plug: MacArthur elaborated on his position in our exclusive Save Jersey interview here).

What matters in the final analysis, of course, is what’s getting through the white noise to Jane and John Doe Voter. Geller’s data suggests that MacArthur’s superior financial ability employed to introduce himself to CD3 likely primary participants, an effort which has financed not just paid media but also a full field program featuring several staffers spread over two counties, is yielding dividends over a relatively brief time period.

Is the proof in the pudding? Geller claims Lonegan’s favorables were right side up in the first poll, 54%-15%, but that they’re now down to 40%-30%. Conversely, he says MacArthur jumped from 10%-3% to 37%-16%.

We’ll know for sure in under four weeks…

 

122 comments on “Poll Memo: MacArthur Takes 9pt Lead

  1. FJL CD3 2014 says:

    An “I approve me” poll? Please.

  2. FJL CD3 2014 says:

    ONE THOUSAND SIX HUNDRED WHEELCHAIRS

  3. FJL CD3 2014 says:

    “THOUSANDS OF JOBS”

  4. FJL CD3 2014 says:

    Lie upon lie.

  5. Anonymous says:

    Oh, this is great. And internal polling from my office shows me leading Jeb Bush 45-2 in Iowa.

  6. Anonymous says:

    This year we’ve seen a tale of two RINOs: one, Tom MacArthur, has flourished beyond what anyone had imagined and looks poised to win the nomination without much trouble. Brian Goldberg, on the other hand, worked his RINO magic to the tune of 9 party lines (5 of which were attained by less-than-democratic means), and has since completely fallen off the face of the earth, while his opponents – particularly Sabrin – have their nose to the grindstone. The establishment is kicking itself for endorsing such an incompetent.

  7. Noonan! says:

    It is certainly an interesting poll. I can’t really disagree with the findings, but it would be interesting to ask a few questions. What is MacArthur’s name ID? If he has a mediocre name ID, his Fav/UnFav would then be very soft, so a good negative ad could get him to one-to-one very easily. Why is the margin of error so high? Normally I see it at 3%, so at 5% it seems much higher. How is the poll weighted? Also, what is the ballot test for high propensity voters, since they are the ones who will mostly like get out and vote. But good on MacArthur for flipping the race in a couple of months, still a long road ahead.

  8. Tracey says:

    Why is Macarthur refusing to release his tax returns? Why did the GOP establishment seek to recruit this multi millionaire insurance man from out the district to challenge Lonegan, a grassroots Conservative who already won this district handely, (He even got more votes than Romney)? Crony Capitalism at it’s finest. If he wins, we the taxpayers lose again. If you think you are seeing a lot of for sale signs in your neighborhood now, just wait.

    • Matt Rooney Matt Rooney says:

      Regardless of whom you support here… what is it with all of this hate for rich people? Since when is it conservative orthodoxy to hate people for being successful? Strange.

  9. Tracey says:

    Matt does questioning Crony Capitalism equate to hating rich people? Sounds like a very juvenile response.

    • Matt Rooney Matt Rooney says:

      Crony capitalism implies that Tom MacArthur got some kind of benefit from the government, one to which he wasn’t otherwise entitled, because he’s a successful guy. Where’s your proof? I haven’t even see that accusation in a Lonegan ad. Without proof, your accusation is little better than juvenile.

  10. Tracey says:

    But the questions are still unanswered. Why?

    • Matt Rooney Matt Rooney says:

      What questions? You haven’t actually asked a question. You’ve made an accusation… that Tom MacArthur is a “crony capitalist”… without citing any facts, evidence, theories, whatever, to back it up. I haven’t even heard his opponents allege it. It’s kind of like saying “why isn’t anyone asking whether Matt Rooney lives in New Jersey” when no one has either (1) disputed it or (2) presented any evidence suggesting I’m lying about it.

      You’re not making sense.

      Take a deep breath. Hurling stones at good people without a basis other than support for the other guy is a tactic of the Left, Tracey. It’s not very conservative. I urge you to deprogram yourself from whatever you’re hearing on that windbag Mark Levin’s show, visit both men’s websites, listen to their interviews, check out our archives and develop an independent position! You may still support Steve in the end after your research, but at least then it’ll be an opinion rooted in a factual analysis.

  11. Tracey says:

    The proof would be in the tax returns he won’t release. And why did the GOP recruit someone when they already had a proven winner. Also, paying his way in with 25,000 to Ocean County, and who knows what else. What would you call this, if not Crony Capitalism? This is not transparency. We the taxpayers have no voice anymore and we are lied to and deceived by Crony politicians every election cycle. As part of the media you should be asking these same questions. We need watch dogs not gate keepers.

  12. FJL CD3 2014 says:

    Wonder if there’s any “Schedule E” in there. There’s no 501c3 filing extant for “In God’s Hands” in Randolph, either…http://www.scribd.com/doc/221764763/In-God-s-Hands-Not-on-the-List-Randolph-501c3-Fillings

    Another “MacArthur”, of legend and fame, kept a room in his home with canvas on the walls, and a simple army cot with a small box next to it. On the box was a bible and a flashlight. MacArthur would show this room to guests and tell them that he slept in there at least one evening a month, to remind him of the life of the common soldier.
    My “uncle”, Col. George H. Scithers, who served under General Marshall, was a West Point Graduate. He was a guest in the MacArthur home one evening with many other dignitaries – a larger than ‘normal’ crowd.

    (He would chuckle whenever he told this story, and I can hear that, now, in my memory, as I write this.)

    To paraphrase George’s tale…

    “The MacArthur family had “borrowed” a flatware service from a neighboring family, so as to have a matching set for the table for the rather large group – nearly 40 of us, who called that evening. At the end of the evening, after everyone had left, it was noticed by MacArthur’s domestic staff that a full place setting AND the borrowed flatware from one place were “missing”. Embarrassed, he was unable to return what he had borrowed, and he discretely and repeatedly inquired of each of the guests over the ensuing months, asking that, if they had ‘accidentally’ taken the missing place setting, that they please return it – no questions asked.

    Six months later, George finally sent him a private note – unsigned, of course.
    “The missing place setting is under the pillow on the cot on which you sleep ‘once a month’”.

    I, sadly, have only one photo of my friend and mentor, Col. George H. Scithers, who served his country from World War I, as a cavalry officer, through to the Viet Nam war, as a staffer.

    It is a photo taken on Christmas eve, in my family home in West Long Branch. He is seated next to none other than Tom Daly, another close family friend, who, by the way, as counsel for the New York Times, was responsible for the verdict that set the precedent by which Tom M may be upset about what the British paper printed about him, and about what Lonegan and I have said, but may do nothing in the law about it. THOSE were MY mentors, growing up – not “hedge fund” managers.

    MacArthur “shall return”…to Randolph – whether it be in June or November. He might beat Lonegan. He won’t beat me.

  13. Rufus O. says:

    Matt, what do you think about Tom MacArthur flat out saying that the federal government has a role in providing insurance? And how about that this is his second instance of jumping into a race to take on a candidate who is a known conservative? Finally, how about his clear opposition to tax reform (proven by his spin of backing the flat tax as wanting to raise taxes) and spending cuts (he can criticize Lonegan’s suggested cuts in military spending, but can’t offer and spending cut ideas of his own)?

    • Matt Rooney Matt Rooney says:

      (1) Do you disagree that government should provide medical coverage for wounded vets? Or regulating the market to protect against fraud? I doubt it. MacArthur was speaking literally… he’s a wonky/nerdy business-oriented kind of guy, not a polished politician. Most conservatives, myself included, would even support limited assistance for genuinely down-on-their-luck individuals to help them buy insurance on the private market (e.g. veteran father of four dies; family needs a stop-gap for child with severe illness). That’s not the same thing as nationalizing 1/5 of the economy! MacArthur, like Lonegan, has repeatedly said he supports a full repeal of Obamacare.

      (2) Why does one guy have a better claim on the seat than another guy? Lonegan said he was done running for public office at the end of his October 2013 campaign. Why wouldn’t other candidates explore running? Not sure I understand your point.

      (3) I disagree with MacArthur regarding the flat tax, but during our interview, he did support reforming the code to make it flatter. That doesn’t make him a liberal. Personally, I was a fan of the Camp compromise. I’d like to hear both men weigh in on it specifically.

      • Rufus O. says:

        Thanks for the response. That isolated quote from MacArthur running in the Lonegan ad is open for interpretation. Some could read into that as an endorsement of wanting more government involvement in health care, but it could well be that it was taken out of context. I am a Lonegan supporter, mostly because of his taxpayer activism on issues such as the “asset monetization” proposal and the out of control borrowing which legislators in both major parties are responsible for. That said, I have been willing to hear Tom MacArthur out. I’ll be honest: I am not a fan of the Ocean Co. GOP establishment and its candidates, who have raised taxes, increased spending, and have become way too comfortable in their elected positions … but since this area is so staunchly Republican, it’s not too hard to understand why. So that was one strike against MacArthur. In addition, I have found his campaign up to this point to be overwhelmingly negative, and his stances on the issues lacking in specifics. I have yet to watch your interview with him, but I will check it out. And I will give him this much: I finally got a campaign mailer from him that told us why we should vote for him instead of voting against Steve Lonegan. He has been relentless in running radio spots, and I am still waiting to hear such an ad on that medium.

  14. Carl says:

    Tracey is my favorite commenter ever for calling Lonegan “a proven winner”

  15. El Conchristiedor says:

    This is nuts. That “poll” taken weeks ago when nobody other than political insiders ever heard of Tom MacArthur was a joke. It was obviously a coordinated effort by the Losergan campaign and PolitickerNj to get some cheap publicity. Obviously it didn’t work. Even so, the 41% for Losergan is still rather pathetic, given that his opponents had no name recognition at the time. You might as well have asked if Losergan was running against Millard Fillmore or Franklin Pierce and you would have gotten the same result.Aside from that, I’m sick of hearing all that garbage about Losergan “carrying the district”. That’s BS. He carried a GOP leaning district with 54% of the vote when only 23% of the voters turned out, which means 77% of the voters either don’t care about Losergan or they hate his guts, more likely the latter. Sure, he got a higher percentage than Romney, but Romney got more votes because turnout was twice as high. Wake up people, TMac has Losergan on the ropes and is toying with him now, playing for time before he delivers the final knockout punch and sends that cheap rug of his flying into the stands.

  16. FJL CD3 2014 says:

    So, “El”…if Lonegan does win, will you vote in November?

    • El Conchristiedor says:

      Yeah, I’ll probably hold my nose and vote for that clown running on that Dem/Rep ticket who keeps blogging all over the internet I guess because he has nothing better to do with his time.

  17. Carl says:

    Might as well ask what he will do if the sun doesn’t rise tomorrow.

  18. […] available evidence suggesting that his name recognition-generated early advantage is fading in the face of a $2 […]

  19. […] Few observers expected outgoing Rep. Jon Runyan to endorse Steve Lonegan given their divergent philosophies on the state of the Republican Party and ongoing antagonism between Lonegan and the Burlington GOP, Save Jerseyans, but over the past few weeks, some CD3 watchers wondered why the former Eagles star hadn’t publicly weighed in on the race to replace him in Congress given the competitive nature of the contest. […]

  20. […] ignore the early lead polling advantage of Lonegan over MacArthur – and should a paid pollster for the MacArthur campaign signaling a MacArthur lead be trusted? The GOP recruited money-man Tom […]

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