Breaking Down the New NJ-03 Polling

Aimee Belgard (left) and Tom MacArthur (right)

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

belgard and macarthurWe’ve got two polls to digest today out of NJ-03, Save Jerseyans. We’ll take’em one at a time.

The first is a DCCC poll (as slanted and self-interested as they come) showing Tom MacArthur (R) three points up on Aimee Belgard (D), 46% to 43%. The DCCC model relies heavily on super-sized Dem turnout from a Cory Booker (D-Twitter) turnout operation which, to date, I haven’t seen any evidence of. He simply doesn’t need to buy that kind of a win this year; no one thinks he’s in that kind of danger.

Always take committee polling for what it is – a fundraising tool (I received an email touting the “results” not long after the news broke on Monday afternoon). I don’t blame’em for it. They’re doing their job. I just don’t see much positive news for Belgard to celebrate when her prime backer’s results show her (1) behind despite a full summer of rough ads attacking her opponents and, more amazingly, (2) a 10-point drop-off between the top of the ticket (Booker) and herself.

The second survey, a Stockton Poll, has the race tied at 42.2% a piece with 12.8% undecided. Curiously, Stockton only shows MacArthur up by 9-points in deep red Ocean County, 47% to 38%, which is a big red flag to me especially in light of the county’s recent voting history and Barack Obama’s horrible statewide numbers. Chris Christie got 3/4 of the vote in Ocean last fall.

But hey, I’m not going to nit pick these polls to death today even though I’m fairly confident that Tom MacArthur is going to win this thing on November 4th by a healthy margin. Your Blogger-in-Chief is a student of history, and only one Democrat has won this seat since the 19th century – Jon Adler in 2008 – and he did it in an ideal Democrat turnout model. And even then, he only won 52.08% to 47.92% and, in case you were curious, still got smoked in Ocean County by a larger (double-digit) margin than Stockton is saying MacArthur is on track to beat Belgard there.

So here’s my two cents on these mid-September polls: take them at face value, people.

Two polls showing Belgard competitive (which probably doesn’t gel with her internal polling, since they just brought in a ringer to help out) are nevertheless a net plus for the MacArthur campaign at this point in the war.

Why? We need everyone – base voters and outside groups alike – to start taking this race more seriously. New Jersey is not a state without races in 2014! I’d frankly like to see a little more urgency both inside and outside of the Garden State, particularly among those groups of individuals who forget that there are plenty of winnable battles left to be won in this state. Not because Tom’s in trouble at this point, mind you, but owing to the fact that the national Democrats want it in their firewall column badly. So we have to act like we’re in danger.

South Jersey Democrats also view it as a natural next step in their statewide expansion, and they won’t totally give up on it at least until Frank LoBiondo retires and a better opportunity opens up further south. We need to work like we’re running 10-points behind now and always, Save Jerseyans.

Let’s get moving. We’ve got a midterm to conquer; our battle begins right here at home.

 

Matt Rooney
About Matt Rooney 8389 Articles
MATT ROONEY is SaveJersey.com's founder and editor-in-chief, a practicing New Jersey attorney, and the host of 'The Matt Rooney Show' on 1210 WPHT every Sunday evening from 7-10PM EST.

8 Comments

  1. As a person who has been called multiple time this week for political polls, I’d like to point that NONE of the pollsters were able to accept the 3rd party candidate of Frederick John LaVergne as an option. In fact one poll required me to express which of the 2 machine candidates I would vote for, and when I said neither of them, I was asked to choose which one I would vote for if Fred wasn’t an option. Seems to me if either party wants accurate data, they should include ALL of the people who are on the ballot for that position.

  2. He’s lucky it’s 2014 because he’s so liberal there’s really no philosophical difference between him and Belgard, let’s all be honest about it.

  3. I believe the polls are accurate and I do not believe Macarthur will win big. I too had that same poll and answered I would not vote for either and they still made me choose one. I think the GOP does not realize how many people they have really angered and pushed out of the party. The way they have been controlling the process and shutting down Conservatives has pushed many to the point of no return. It will be interesting to see how many people stay home, vote 3rd party, or write in. I hope the GOP takes notice. If not they will be doomed next time around when they can not run against Obama. Macarthur is a liberal and is not strong on immigration, and is in bed with the Liberals of this state when it comes to social engineering of our towns, and the radicals of the EPA. He has not even taken a stance on Common Core. The R will help him this time but it will not the next time.

  4. Richard, I’m hearing that from literally dozens of people who took the time out to tell me that they were called on a “push Poll”. Quinnipiac College admitted in writing last year that they discard any data points not in the polling segment, and that the total calls reported ONLY includes those who answer AND give one of the two choices. More people are fed up with the machine and the two lackluster offerings this time.

    I wear no party handcuffs, as you know. Fiscal Conservative. Social Moderate.

    Real answers from the Federal level all the way down to the local level.

    YOU DO have another choice – regardless of what the polls tell you. Think about this – if Belgard and Mac are tied at 42%, I need only move each less than 10% to win. Math is Math is Math.

    Tracey – you don’t have to stay home, or hold your nose when you pull for Mac. You have another option.

    “Stand for what’s right, or settle for what’s left” – Frederick John LaVergne, CD3 2014

  5. Fred you are just a joke. You know it and so do your 0.03 percent of the votes you may be lucky enough to get. You only care about beating party bosses period and to myself and many others that is not good enough. Just proves your own inflated self

  6. When Lonegan ran against MacArthur during primary Tom had virtually nothing on where he stood
    Apart from being in favor of amnesty & insisting it shouldn’t be called amnesty
    Now Tom has about 7 issues listed & seems to be trying to go further left than Amiee
    It’s good to see Tom has the carpenters union supporting him
    But I doubt his platform will win many votes from conservatives
    Too bad Gilmore & Burlington bosses didn’t back someone simply bc he came w/ fists full of cash to them
    It will almost surely cost the Republicans this seat

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