By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog
What’s tougher for this South Jersey native than seeing Chris Christie in the Dallas Cowboys box with Jerry Jones on Sunday night, Save Jerseyans?
Watching him tour McGuire Air Force Base with a man who openly hates the U.S. military: Barack Obama.
That’s the plan for Monday. At 2:10 p.m., New Jersey’s governor will greet POTUS on the tarmac. He’ll join the President shortly thereafter as he makes remarks to military personnel and their families at an instillation responsible for over 100,000 New Jersey jobs and serving as a vital linchpin of our regional economy.
Let me be clear: I don’t blame a governor for affording respect to a visiting president, regardless of whether I think the particular president might deserve it. I felt that way when O came here after Sandy; I feel the same way today, too.
But, in the strictly political analysis, it’s very tough timing for a Republican with base problems preparing to launch a GOP primary campaign.
The dominant tactical theme of the Christie political organization post-2011 redistricting has been bipartisanship. Washington isn’t working because its occupants refuse to cooperate, negotiate and get stuff done. Chris Christie is different! And he can affect a change in the Washington culture. That’s the working narrative along with a strong emphasis on reviving “compassionate conservatism.”
It worked in 2013 at the state level. A new Quinnipiac Poll released last Thursday suggests it might not be enough to get him through the preliminary round of Election 2014: he’s running behind Hillary by 11-points, 50% to 39%, in the Garden State. Not surprising given the decidedly negative turn in his press clippings over the last year, most recently a very unflattering account of an as-of-yet unintroduced piece legislation designed to permit him to publish and profit from a book.
Christie’s likely rivals aren’t performing any better, but the underlying numbers are troubling:
New Jersey voters say 53 – 40 percent that Christie would not make a good president, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. Republicans say 70 – 21 percent that their governor would do well in the White House, but every other party, gender or age group listed disagrees.
American voters are not ready for a “Jersey Guy” president such as Christie, Garden State voters say 49 – 43 percent. There are gender and age gaps: Men are divided 46 – 47 percent, but women say 51 – 41 percent America is not ready. Voters 18 to 34 years old say 54 – 38 percent the U.S. is ready for a “Jersey Guy,” but voters 35 years old and older disagree.
“Even Jersey guys, actually Jersey girls, don’t think the nation will go for a Jersey guy like Gov. Christopher Christie,” concluded Maurice Carroll, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.
Q’s results haven’t changed much from October when he trailed by 10. Still, it’s a strong reversal from one year ago. Running for reelection, the Governor didn’t experience a gender gap. Even then, as New Jerseyans rallied around him, Christie’s numbers among his own party members nationally were showing signs of real weakness, a phenomenon related to the Sandy “hug” and Election 2012 infighting between Christie and Romney staffers.
Now even New Jersey GOP support is softening; 70% is not a strong numbers.
Yes, it’s one poll. We’re a year out from the first caucuses/primaries. A lot can (and will) change. I get it.
Does a photo spray with the least popular Democrat president in recent memory help Governor Christie solve any of those base problems? Or keep supporters/financiers of Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush from agitating?
I can say this much: the Texas GOP primary is relatively early (March 1st) so the Cowboys box sit-in was probably more useful than the AFB visit. Marginally. The former certainly isn’t going to help his NJ rating in the next Quinnipiac survey.
What would truly help: the Governor should shelve his “bipartisanship” focus and do something bold… like propose a statewide pilot voucher program.
For the time being, today, he should take a cue from Rep. Chris Smith and visibly raise the “misguided” phasing out of the KC-10 aircraft with POTUS.
