By Matthew Gilson | The Save Jersey Blog
After failing to secure the party line in 2013, Save Jersey can now confirm that former Co-Chair of the New Jersey College Republicans, James Keyes, is expected to soon enter the race for District 36 assembly. Keyes, 24, is a recent graduate of Farleigh Dickinson University and has since served as both the campaign manager for District 36 in 2013 and a campaign aide for Kathe Donovan in 2014.
After flirting with a bid in 2013, Keyes is expected to command the support of the district leaders he failed to secure to last time around. Several municipal chairmen have already reached out to Keyes about a potential run citing their interest in his candidacy.
Though the 36th district is Democratic-favored, Save Jerseyans, the district is largely unchanged from the one Republicans dominated in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Another huge advantage for Keyes will be the absence of powerful State Senator Paul Sarlo at the top of the ticket. Even with Sarlo at the top of the ticket, Rosina Romano came within a few thousands votes of defeating Marlene Caride in 2013. It will certainly be an uphill race, but an unorthodox candidate will provide a boost of energy to the district.
Keyes will also be helped by an influx of young volunteers from around the state.
To this point, no names have emerged as front-runners to run alongside Keyes in the district. Many have speculated that a Keyes candidacy may be able to attract a top-flight candidate such as former Ridgefield Councilman and 2014 freeholder candidate Bob Avery. The candidates from LD36 2013, Brian Fitzhenry and Foster Lowe have already ruled out another run and Rosina Romano does not appear likely to enter the fray either.
A resident of Ridgefield Park, Keyes may wind up being the youngest assembly candidate on either side of the aisle. Stay tuned for further updates and an official announcement if it comes…
The district actually did change in a big way, losing Nutley, which the Republicans relied on to bring out big pluralities to offset Passaic. Replacing it with Cliffside Park and the like made the district worse, imo. However, one interesting thing I saw is that in the Bergen Exec race, as between Districts 36, 37, and 38, the district that gave the least votes to Tedesco was 36 (http://politickernj.com/2014/11/ld36-37-and-38-by-the-numbers-in-bergen/). That’s even over District 38, which is widely seen as one of the few “swing districts” for Republican pickups over the past two cycles since the new map was in place. Granted, Tedesco hails from the 38th and Donovan from the 36th, but still, gives a definite glimmer of hope.
“Unorthodox” candidate… given the makeup of the district, there is some irony in that statement. Passaic and Cliffside Park put the Rs 5000 votes in the hole. It can’t be made up elsewhere. That being said, Republicans need to put up competent candidates in as many districts as possible. Best of luck.
In the later years, Scalera would win Nutley handily enough that it did not remain the advantage it did. The real advantage for Paul was his ability to come close and sometimes win Passaic. The subtraction of Nutley hurts but Garfield and Cliffside Park basically negate each other and Ridgefield and Ridgefield Park are better than having Lodi. It’s a tougher district but far from completely out of reach
Garfield is in District 35. Even with Sarlo not on the ballot in 2015, it will be very difficult to fill in the Passaic / Cliffside Park vote sink from towns which at best may give Republicans a very small margin (say net a couple of hundred votes). If the GOP didn’t gain seats in 2013, how will they do in 2015? That being said, I hope candidates there do well.
My point was that having Cliffside Park is the same as having Garfield and Lodi before. The key would be to run up a huge numbers in North Arlington, Lyndhurst, and Rutherford (which has a mayoral election). Also, if Republicans can recruit Sinisi to run against Wargacki in Wallington, it may lead to a 100-200 vote win there which would be huge. With a turnout of 15% or so in Passaic (not impossible) the race is potentially winnable. That being said, it is obviously a HUGE uphill battle