By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog
Regular readers know how I love to preach against accepting a bad premise, Save Jerseyans.
The most prevalent bad premise these days? That a “brokered convention” is somehow bad, or destructive, or undemocratic, or some other nonsense. Unfortunately for the pessimists in our audience, after Wisconsin weighed in last night, a contested convention just got a lot more likely.
Allow me to challenge your assumptions:
(1) Trump, Cruz and Kasich have all fallen far short of uniting a majority of the GOP electorate.
This might be the single most important argument against the “it’s time to anoint the Donald” narrative. That’s because Trumpies, despite voting in a Republican primary, continue to make arguments that are reminiscent of what you’d hear from Democrats (capital and not lowercase “d”).
Trump is the weakest Republican front runner in modern history. As the great Thomas Sowell noted again this week, Trump has averaged somewhere around 40% of the vote to date. He barely broke that threshold in North Carolina (40.2%). He performed much worse in key general election states like Virginia (34.7%) and Ohio (35.6%). Last night? Only a little better than 30% of the vote in Wisconsin. What’s more, large numbers of Republicans – three times as many Republicans as Democrats who say the same about Hillary Clinton – are pledging to never vote for the man. Even if some are bluffing, he’d need MOST of them to come back to win in November.
Again… look no further than last night’s results:
WI Exits polls: If Trump v Clinton, 35 percent of GOP primary voters won't vote for Trump. #WisconsinPrimary
— Stephen Hayes (@stephenfhayes) April 5, 2016
The bottom line? All three remaining candidates – including the Donald – are going to set foot in Cleveland this July having failed to unify the Republican Party (or even come close). Stop being so darn pessimistic! A contested convention presents an opportunity to unify the party through either a unity ticket or a consensus candidate just the same as it could further divide us. Alternatively one of the current candidates could prove his worth through excellent maneuvering or a blockbuster floor speech; history’s greatest leaders emerge from such crucibles. Then again, how could we possibly be any more divided than we already are? Exactly. So there’s nothing to lose!
(2) Trump is also the weakest front runner in modern history.
It’s simple math, Save Jerseyans. There aren’t enough white votes left in key battleground states to compensate for the Donald’s historically-high negative ratings among Hispanics, women, and other key swing groups. How bad is it? Trump is winning Mississippi by ONLY three-points in a new poll. THREE. McCain beat Obama by 13+ points there in 2008. Think about that…
Could Hillary get indicted in October by a Democrat-run Justice Department? Sure. Anything could happen. But with a Supreme Court seat and plenty of other stuff on the line, are you really willing to take that chance? All to make a point? I sincerely hope not.
And before you even say it: stories of massive Reagan-esque Democrat Trump defections are exactly that… stories. Assumptions based on anecdotal evidence. Don’t underestimate how America is also far more politically-polarized than it was back in 1980. You’re pinning your hopes on a theory, not on hard data. That’s you’re right to do so, and your gamble might pay off, but don’t confuse facts with theories and make a major decision on that basis.
(3) Trump agreed to run as a Republican so he need to play by the GOP’s rules.
Students of history and civics (there aren’t many of us left) know that the United States isn’t a democracy; it’s a indirect, federal republic. “We the People” is a reference to our inalienable entitlement to constitutionally-protected right. It does NOT translate to 40% of 26% of the country getting to decide everyone else’s fate without a convention to talk it over!
And that convention has rules preceding the Donald’s candidacy which all of the candidates – Mr. Trump included – swore to follow. Suddenly, the Trumpies are having a shit fit over their opponents using those rules – not breaking or circumventing those rules – beat them.
Ummm… deal with it? Entitlement used to just be a lefty phenomenon. I hate seeing it pervade the ranks of the GOP!
(4) Relax: some of history’s best presidents came out of brokered conventions!
Our first and greatest GOP president – Abraham Lincoln – emerged as a compromise candidate at the 1860 Chicago convention when prominent party faction leaders William Seward, Salmon Chase, and Edward Bates failed to unite the Republican Party. Sound familiar?
In the early 20th Century, conservative hero Calvin Coolidge‘s vice presidency (which proved fateful after President Harding’s passing) was the result of a floor revolt against party boss backers of the corrupt Harding. It happens!
Like I said… don’t assume the worst.
This could be the best thing that ever happened to us! Our hero might still be out there.
(5) Trump clearly isn’t ready to be president; a tough convention battle could help him grow. A loss could do the same for Cruz.
Reagan didn’t do too well at the 1976 convention. But guess what? No one wants to think about it, but you couldn’t have 1980 without the ’76 GOP shipwreck. Similarly, the electoral disaster that was 1964 and Goldwater gave birth to what would eventually become Ronald Reagan’s conservative coalition.
What’s painfully clear in 2016: our front runner isn’t ready to be president. The process will destroy him or make him better. Or it’ll set up something bigger and better for the future?
So be it. These things are organic. I’m willing to leave fate to its own devices.
______
Agree!
Hillary is going to win in November. Too many want the historic first female president and others, the first certified rectum as president. NB Previous candidates evolved, disappointingly, into rectums once in office.
Trump was actually behind both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in Utah poll while Cruz and Kasich had substantial leads. I think with Gary Johnson in the race, Trump could even lose in Mississippi.
A brokered convention will enable the G0pe to foist a McCain/Romney/Bush redux on us. Ignore what R00ney has to say about any of this…he’s an Establishment Tool.