NEW POLL: Trump trails Clinton by only 4-points in N.J.

New Jersey hasn’t gone for the Republican presidential nominee since 1988.

Could 2016 end the streak?

What’s more, could it be the most likely “blue” Northeaster state to switch allegiances this November?

I remain skeptical for a number of reasons, Save Jerseyans, but unlike other sites, I don’t pick-and-choose what you get you to see based upon my desired outcome.

rushmore trump clintonHere’s the latest….

A brand new poll from Emerson College offers some hope to supporters; conducted between September 2nd and 4th, it found Donald Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by just 4-points — 47% to 43% — in the Garden State.

It’s the first publicly-reported polling result in N.J. since the spring when Trump trailed by double-digits.

Emerson surveyed 800 likely voters.

The numbers underlying the results are interesting. Trump is winning 18% of Sanders backers in New Jersey and leads Clinton among independent voters with 45% support.

What’s more, “in six of the states polled, less than half of combined Cruz, Kasich and Rubio voters plan to vote for Trump in the general election; the exception is New Jersey, where 62% support the nominee.” Libertarian Gary Johnson polls only 9% in N.J., considerably lower than his double-digit margins among this same GOP group in other polled states.

Trump’s favorability score (-15%) is even the lowest of 7 Northeastern states polled.

Historically, since George H. W. Bush carried New Jersey in 1988, Republicans have lost by margins ranging from approximately 6.5-points in 2004 (Bush v. Kerry) and 18-points in 2012 (Romney v. Obama).

The bottom line? My words, not theirs?

Don’t bet the farm on Donald Trump carrying New Jersey this fall, but if one “deep blue” Northeastern state goes red this November, New Jersey might be the most likely (after Pennsylvania). Assuming, of course, that Emerson got it right and current trends continue. In any event, it’d be very good news for N.J. Republicans running down-ballot this fall.

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Matt Rooney
About Matt Rooney 8403 Articles
MATT ROONEY is SaveJersey.com's founder and editor-in-chief, a practicing New Jersey attorney, and the host of 'The Matt Rooney Show' on 1210 WPHT every Sunday evening from 7-10PM EST.