N.J. pollster finds gains for Trump in key battleground state

Murray (left) and Trump (right)

The hour is late, Save Jerseyans, but if Donald Trump and his supporters need to find reason for hope somewhere over the final two weeks of Election 2016?

North Carolina may be a place to look.

A new poll out Monday morning found the Republican nominee trailing Hillary Clinton by only 1-point, 47% to 46%. He trailed by 2-points back in the summer months. While the margin separating the contenders is little changed, the finding suggest Trump may actually be improving his position down the home stretch of the campaign, a conclusion which runs contrary to the dominate media narrative of a campaign that’s imploding.

Murray (left) and Trump (right)
Murray (left) and Trump (right)

Today’s Monmouth University Poll reports Trump improving his advantage among white voters without a college degree – up to 72% from 66% two months ago – despite continuing to lag Clinton among white voters with a college degree: 43% to 50% for Clinton; that’s actually worse than the smaller 39% to 43% difference polled two months ago.

You can view the full polling report here.

Much of the change observed is attributable to 3rd party voters and undecided voters ‘coming home.’

“The main thing that’s moved in this race is a drop in support for Gary Johnson and more undecided voters making up their minds.  In any event, it remains a nail-biter,” explained Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The coastal Southern State with a booming population fueled by Northern transplants is one of America’s leading swing states. After going reliably Republican for decades, the state went for Obama in ’08 before Mitt Romney won it back by a small 2-point margin in 2012. This year, Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes hinges on winning North Carolina to offset weaknesses in traditionally-Republican Western states.

Without North Carolina?

Trump would need to win almost every state George W. Bush won in 2004, including Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia; a few of those states’ recent polling have Trump trailing Clinton by near-double digit margins.

The RCP average has Clinton ahead in N.C. by a mere 2.1 points. The FiveThirtyEight blog pegs the Democrat nominee’s chances of carrying the Tar Heel State at almost 70%.

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