Tag: election 2012
Cross-Posted from Dan Cirucci’s Blogspot
So, you wanna know the “why” of it all, huh?
Why or why did this happen?
For what it’s worth, here are my top six reasons:
1) Needless GOP bloodshed. The long Republican primary battle was unecessarily contentious and no one epitomized the irrationality of this more than Rick Santorum who continued to take shots at Mitt Romney well past closing time. And Newt Gingrich wasn’t much better. All of this simply set the stage for . . .
2) Obama’s early negative blitz. The Obama team wisely decided to define Romney before he had a chance to define himself. So, they gambled and took a huge chunk of dough early on and invested it in a relentlessly negative ad campaign painting a picture of Romney as a selfish, disconnected corporate titan who cared only about the rich: self-centered, mean, uncaring and greedy. People say they hate negative ads, but people remember negative ads. Since Romney held back and didn’t immediately answer the ads and forcefully counterpunch, this pre-emptive Obama effort worked.
Be of good cheer, Save Jerseyans.
Obama led John McCain by 4-points (49% to 45%) on that same date in 2008. And keep in mind… the Gallup Poll leans left (it predicted 13-point Obama victory in ’08 but the final result was a 7.2-point Obama win) and registered voter polls tend to lean Democratic, too.
Better yet, the GOP-leaning Rasmussen Reports had Romney up 2-points nationally on Tuesday and, interestingly, up 2-points in Colorado. Scott Rasmussen had the national race tied four years ago on the advent of the financial crisis… one week later, he found McCain trailing by 5-points.
A little contrast? The RCP average is still populated by registered voter polls; the most recent is an NBC/WSJ poll showing Obama up by 5-points nationally (50% to 45%).This poll in particular has 32% Dems and 25% Republicans (42% to 37% including leaners)… close to the ideal Democrat 2008 turnout model.
This is a tie ball game, folks. We still have four debates and plenty of pro-Romney money to go through before November 6th. The polls are wrong and media outlets are trying to break your spirit with the goal of keeping you away from the polls/phone banks/tea party meetings. KEEP THE FAITH. Save Jersey is a “naysayer free” zone through November 6th…
New Jersey was truly the “Crossroads of the American Revolution,” Save Jerseyans.
State Senator Joe Kyrillos (R-Monmouth) seemed to cross plenty of roadways throughout the Garden State for yesterday’s Independence Day celebrations.
He visited Fourth of July festivities held by six municipalities in four counties: Ridgewood (Bergen), Ridgewood (Bergen), Little Falls (Passaic), Clifton (Passaic), Cranford (Union), and Edison (Middlesex).
The campaign certainly rolls on but, with about five months left to go before Election Day, there haven’t been any significant changes in the electoral dynamic.
Senator Kyrillos continued to trail incumbent Bob Menendez in the most recent public surveys though Menendez also continues to suffer from less-than-steller job approval and name recognition. The latest FEC reports reflect a 6-to-1 “cash on hand” advantage for Menendez though these latest totals fail to reflect the proceeds of both a Kyrillos-Romney fundraiser and a Menendez-Clinton event.
All the more reason for the challenger, State Senator Joe Kyrillos (R-Monmouth), to crisscross New Jersey and drum-up support.
He was in Hoboken on Sunday touring the Garden Street Mew’s Farmers Market and Pier A at the Waterfront…
The media is out trying to a fake create controversy regarding Governor Mitt Romney and his march to the White House. It’s all based on the fact that Sarah Palin, the former half-term Governor of Alaska and Vice Presidential candidate, has yet to formally say the words, “I support Governor Mitt Romney for President,” verbatim.
The story began within the last few days when Tucker Carlson’s The Daily Caller jumped on the fact that Palin did not utter Romney’s name once in the 35-minute address at last weekend’s RightOnline Convention.
The Daily Caller left out of the story that RightOnline was sponsored by Americans for Prosperity which is a 502 (c) (3) and, as such, is forbidden to endorse a political candidate because of their tax status.
Smelling a continuation of the conservatives vs. Romney narrative from the primary, noted leftist news site POLITICO (infamous for railroading Herman Cain) couldn’t help themselves and attempted to pour gasoline on this fabricated fire. Then the site The Daily Beast linked to POLITICO’s article. Governor Palin has stated that she would vote for the Republican candidate regardless of who it was because the other name on the ballot would be Barack Obama. Her words exactly:
We have a presumptive nominee now in the GOP process after a good competitive and very spirited competition to find that presumptive nominee and, yes, if that vote were to be taken today, obviously I would vote for President — for Gov. Romney over President Barack Obama in a heartbeat.
But why is Sarah Palin’s endorsement so darn important, Save Jerseyans?
“At no time in our nation’s history has it been more critical that Members of Congress provide leadership that protects and advances the interests of the business community,” wrote Chamber President Thomas J. Donohue in his endorsement letter. “We believe that your re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives will help produce sustained economic growth, help create more jobs, and get our country back on track. We will encourage the business community to vigorously support your candidacy.”
Runyan also earned the support today of the influential Independence Hall Tea Party PAC whose Philly-based organization boasts many members and deep ties in neighboring Burlington County and the larger South Jersey region where Runyan’s NJ-3 district is situated. Last month, Mitt Romney addressed the org (watch full video) with many NJ pols in attendance including Runyan and U.S. Senate Candidate Joe Kyrillos (R-Monmouth).
“As supporters of one of the most fiscally conservative House of Representatives in modern history, incumbents Chris Smith (NJ-4) and Jon Runyan (NJ-3) have also earned our unanimous endorsement,” said Burlington County resident and PAC NJ Vice President Bill Green.
As you’re already aware, Rep. Runyan is facing off against
NJ-3 resident Shelley Adler (D-Cherry Hill) this November. She has yet to take a position on ObamaCare’s repeal, an issue near and dear to the membership of both the U.S. Chamber and the Independence Hall Tea Party.
U.S. Senate hopeful Joe Kyrillos (R-Monmouth) recently sat down with NJ Today Managing Editor Mike Schneider to discuss his campaign.
Of particular interest? The Republican’s fundraising ability (ample) and low name recognition (undeniable) were featured prominently in Schneider’s line of questioning; refusing to allow a negative inference to supplant a potentially positive one, Senator Kyrillos continued to assert that (1) he’ll have plenty of dough to be viable against incumbent Bob Menendez and (2) how his name recognition will be where it needs to be by Election Day:
Senator Menendez also recently appeared on NJ Today (about two weeks ago), at which time Mike Schneider asked the incumbent about his own weak name id with the same voters whom he’s represented for six years in the U.S. Senate.
His answer: Lack of exposure?
Governors get more attention? Really?
Next time, Schneider should ask Hudson Bob how much “major” or “national” media exposure Corzine, Codey, Donald D., Whitman and Florio ever garnered during their time in the State House? Not nearly as much as Governor Christie… combined. And Christie’s done it in less than three years! Not even that pervert McGreevey with his lame and insulting “Gay American” speech can hold a candle to Christie’s celebrity.
What does this little bit of history tell us? You have to DO something important/interesting/courageous to be noticed, Senator! Governor Christie is shaking things up in Trenton. You’re a wallflower in Washington, D.C.; we can’t even get you to ask any tough questions (or mention your old pal Corslime’s name?) during the Senate Banking Committee’s MF Global “investigation.” THAT was another chance to stand out and do the right thing. You just blew it.
The bottom line: Bob Menendez has no one to blame for his obscurity but Bob Menendez. Kyrillos does have an excuse until October-ish. The proverbial “rubber” will have needed to “hit the road” by then or it may be lights out!
Want to learn more about the Menendez/Kyrillos contest? Click here to visit Save Jersey’s exclusive archives. It’s your one-stop shop!
Everyone knows that to become President of the United States a candidate needs to collect 270 electoral votes, this is the lowest majority you can have to take the White House. So what happens if no one gets there. Or worse, what happens if both candidates get exactly 269 electoral votes? And what is the likelihood of that even happening?
Well, taking a look at the map, its not as unlikely as you might think. Check out this map I put together:
This map is perfectly possible and would be an absolute nightmare for the process. So I am sure you are now wondering, what happens in this case? Look no further than the Constitution.
The 12th Amendment in part reads:
The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote . . .
So basically what it means is that when no one has 270, the election goes to the House of Representatives. Each state’s delegation will vote amongst themselves and their state gets one vote. The majority of the states will then elect the President. Clearly since 33 states currently enjoy a Republican majority delegation, Mitt Romney would be the winner, right? Not so fast.
The vote would take place on January 6, 2013, when the House and Senate normally meet to count the electoral votes every four years. The House that would be voting on the President will be the newly elected House in 2013. How do we know this if its never happened before? Well, for starters, the 2012 electoral college is based on the newly redistricted maps of the 50 states, so some of the members of Congress (see either Steve Rothman or Bill Pascrell) will not even be in the House anymore when this vote takes place.
This political doomsday scenario shows the importance of not only electing Romney, but also maintaining a strong Republican majority in the House. But wait, theres more.
The Vice President will not just glide in on Romney’s coat tails. The Senate will select the Vice President in the same way that the House selects the President. This means that under the 269 – 269 map, unless the GOP takes over the Senate, we would have President Romney and Vice President Biden until 2016. What a weird White House that would be.
Phil Collins has written a lot of great music, Save Jerseyans.
I would, however, caution against substituting his lyrics for political advice. It may not end well. Consider the plight of President Obama’s increasingly unpopular government. His henchmen are showing their “true colors” to the America public and it isn’t pretty.
Always good for a stupid comment, VP Joe Biden is praising the President’s “big stick” at a time when our sworn enemies in Iran, North Korea, Russia, and the Middle East are unimpressed by his administration’s impotent foreign policy (or being directly comforted by the prez via a hot mic).
A senior EPA official is threatening to “crucify” oil companies when the economy continues to struggle, gas prices are already sky-high and our national energy infrastructure is crumbling under an endless wave of punishing environmental regulations.
And they still want to talk about Mitt Romney’s lifestyle? At least it’s financed by his own money! Americans are experiencing historic unemployment while the First Lady is unapologetically dropping $500k of our money on European adventures. Sometimes Michelle Anotinette makes the GSA look thrifty!
The list of scandals, outrages and insults accumulating over these past four years are nearly endless. Solyndra. Fast and Furious. A little incident involving Columbian ladies of the night and our secret service?
Need I go on? We haven’t even gotten to the policy end of things!
The key thing to remember, Save Jerseyans, is that not one of these aforementioned incidents is isolated. The Obama Administration’s flunkies aren’t normal, flag-waving folks who occasionally find themselves caught saying crazy things. They ARE crazy people coming under scrutiny for flashing their true colors! Their antics aren’t aberrations but, rather, a mirror reflection of their extremely ideological commander-in-chief who values government’s authority at the expense of individual liberty. We certainly don’t even need to go back to Obama’s college days for examples of his crazy influences and associations. Just look at the “czar” list and you’ve seen everything you need to know.
Yes, even the most wilfully blind among us are starting to see your party’s “true colors,” Mr. President. We don’t like them! Hence, why this race is a lot closer than it should be at the moment given Mitt’s many institutional and intra-party challenges of the past several months.
Marco Rubio says he doesn’t want it, Save Jerseyans. His actions tell another story; for example, he was barnstorming with Mitt Romney yesterday in battleground Southeastern Pennsylvania ahead of tomorrow’s Keystone State primary.
And what would a historic Romney-Rubio ticket mean for Election 2012? Most pundits wouldn’t say “nothing” exactly, but perhaps something only marginally more generous. Conventional wisdom assumes that vice presidential picks don’t affect the final vote very much one way or the other.
Back when the political parties held true “brokered” conventions, second slot selections usually reflected regional compromises, i.e. Kennedy and Johnson. Contemporary presidential candidates have erred on the side of “safe” choices, guys like Al Gore and Dick Cheney, who projected experience and stability for the ticket’s seemingly less experienced headliners.
It’s hard to put “Joe Biden” and “safe” in the same sentence without smirking but sure, I guess he fits the profile as well. Sarah Palin was a notable (and ultimately catastrophic) departure from the formula.
I think Marco Rubio could represent a rare positive departure, and New Jersey’s GOP U.S. Senate candidate could be the biggest beneficiary…
Attorney General Eric Holder and the Obama Administration may claim voter fraud is “extremely rare,” Save Jerseyans, but then why does the President’s campaign website include a form to “report voter fraud and other polling problems” (see right)?
Click here to check it out for yourselves.
So what exactly are/were they expecting to find? Given the Admin’s history, it sure seems like an exercise in futility to me.
We know Eric Holder isn’t interested in investigating video-documented voter intimidation by “new” black panthers.
State-based preventative measures for in-person fraud, like common sense voter ID legislation, are met with lawsuits by the Justice Department; the anti-fraud advocates themselves are met with boycotts and attacks by Obama surrogates and allies.
And as for straight-up phony voters? We know they sure don’t bother or concern the President. He was, after all, an old Chicago community organizer and ACORN lawyer.
So I’ll ask again: what the hell am I supposed to report on this form that anyone in the Obama Administration is willing to do anything about? Votes cast for Mitt Romney?
No one likes him according to the pundits! Women, hispanics, female hispanics, martians, Marianists, female hispanic martian Marianists. Everyone! We’re already hearing talking heads (on both sides of the aisle) wonder aloud if Mitt can, in fact, triumph against President Obama.
In April? More than six months out?
It’s waaaay to early for that kind of talk, folks; moreover, the latest polling predicts an extremely close general election contest. Consider how we’ve only had three major polls in April and all three show we’re likely to experience a barn-burner (via RCP average):
|FOX News||4/9 – 4/11||910 RV||44||46||Romney +2|
|Rasmussen Tracking||4/9 – 4/11||1500 LV||45||45||Tie|
|ABC News/Wash Post||4/5 – 4/8||RV||51||44||Obama +7|
Note that the only LIKELY voter poll since early March is the above referenced Rasmussen survey showing a dead heat. That March Bloomberg survey also found a dead heat. And as for the ABC News poll cited above? A tad suspect; for example, roughly 12% of the electorate was African American in the 2008 Election but the ABC News sample used this April was more than 18% African American (a demographic voting group which President Obama carried by a nearly unanimous margin of 95% to 4% last time).
Recent history is also somewhat instructive and provides a real source of hope for Romney supporters (and everyone who wants/needs a new president in January 2013). In mid-April 2004, President G.W. Bush enjoyed a strong 52% job approval rating in the historically consistent Gallup survey; only 45% disapproved.
Obama’s latest Gallup numbers? 48% approve and 44% disapprove.
President Bush went on to win reelection by just 2.4%.
President Obama sure wishes he was above 50% like President Bush was at this same point in the race, folks. That 4-point spread between Bush’s April ’04 and Obama’s numbers is highly significant for the amount of uncertainty it injects into his campaign. It tells us that, as of right now, O is ANYTHING but “safe” because the electorate isn’t sure yet whether he deserves a second go-around.
Mitt Romney can get the job done if he runs a Bush-quality campaign, Save Jerseyans. Naysayers be damned!
Following congressional redistricting in December, Save Jerseyans, the 2012 elections were bound to be an absolute snore fest.
We haven’t been disappointed.
Click here to read the complete “unofficial” primary list compiled after yesterday’s filing deadline.
Sure, there are a few interesting storylines. In NJ-9, redisticted Democrats Steve Rothman and Bill Pascrell are battling for their political lives. The winner will face media personality and presumptive GOP nominee Rabbi Shmuley Boteach. Democrats will also fight each other for the right to succeed the late Donald Payne in NJ-10.
On the other side of the aisle (and futher southeast), NJ-6 has a potentially interesting Republican fight between Middlesex-endorsed Anna Little and Monmouth-backed Ernesto Cullari; that contest’s victor will face New Jersey’s $4 million man, Frank Pallone.
But the common thread? Not one of these races is expected to be competitive in November based on voter demographics alone.
Even the state’s arguably most “competitive” seat, NJ-3, is being contested by a Democrat candidate who is no longer a resident of the district and, by all public indicators, has barely lifted a finger to campaign with just over six months to go before the general election. Some insiders believe she’s just a placeholder. For whom? God only knows – this is South Jersey we’re talking about.
So let’s hope Joe Kyrillos gives Bob Menendez a serious run for his money this cycle, Save Jerseyans. If for no other reason because there won’t be anything else to watch in terms of Garden State federal races if he doesn’t!
Today marked a significant milestone for one New Jersey campaign.
State Senator Joe Kyrillos (R-Monmouth) continued down his smooth path to the NJGOP U.S. Senate nomination tonight, Save Jerseyans, winning the unanimous assent of the Hunterdon Republican organization.
Heading into tonight, Kyrillos had already wrapped up Atlantic, Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Somerset and Union County. Convention season ends with so much as a bump in the road.
A date that looms even larger for the Kyrillos campaign?
This Saturday, March 31st: the end of the April Quarterly filing period per FEC regs. We know he’s been busy. Busy enough? And with success? TBD.