Good news, Mr. Part-Time Mayor! You can go back to embracing capitalism again.
Why? Because after running ads attacking Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital tenure in 2012, President Obama just tapped a Bain executive as his new top economic adviser! (h/t Daily Caller). Mitt ran on the notion that his experience turning around giant, failing corporations made him well-suited to rescue the federal government. President Obama finally concedes the point.
Changing your principles on a daily basis must be exhausting…
Mitt Romney was given a warm embrace with the crowd chanting “Mitt, Mitt, Mitt!” after a very rousing applause and welcome by South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, a GOP Governor who endorsed him relatively early in the 2012 Presidential election.
Romney praised the South Carolina Governor, quipping “We need more Governors like Nikki Haley,”
The former presidential candidate seemed genuinely moved by the audience’s enthusiastic response, and although his campaign has received much criticism after the fact, upon reflecting on his defeat, Romney told the crowd “it is up to us to make sure to learn from our mistakes, my mistakes, to make sure we take back the White House, the Senate, and put in place conservative principles.”
Romney also offered this bit of advice while simultaneously acknowledging that he was perhaps not the right man for the job: “Look for 30 Republican Governors across the country; winning elections, including Rick Synder who passed right to work in Michigan.” Interesting!
He also stressed the need to look to Republican Governors in blue and purple states, including Susana Martinez of New Mexico, Bob Mcdonall of Virginia, Scott Walker of Wisconsin, and of course, our very own Chris Christie of New Jersey, the latter of which received the loudest of applause. Very interesting! As we have mentioned time and time again, Governor Christie is conspicuously absent, and we are determined to find out what the CPAC faithful think. The loud ovation at the sound of his name rolling off Mitt Romney’s lips would be a good starting point for our inquiry!
As it turns out, the popular political site PolitiFact’s “Lie of the Year” for 2012 wasn’t a lieafter all, Save Jerseyans.
Too bad we can’t get a do-over based on their bad information.
You may recall that PolitiFact’s “fact check” determined that Mitt Romney’s infamous Jeep TV Ad was misleading for claiming Barack Obama “‘sold Chrysler to Italians who are going to build Jeeps in China’ at the cost of American jobs.” Many analysts believe the manufactured blow-back proved political fatal to Mitt Romney in critical Ohio, a battleground state where he ultimately lost by 3-points.
I don’t expect any of this to have a major impact on 2013; it could, however, transform the 2016 playing field assuming Chris Christie ultimately decides to play for a shot at the 2016 Republican nomination.
A little background: Matt Drudge is a known ally of key Romney Team insiders. Given the reported deterioration of that once-close relationship and the Governor’s recent smack down of Romney’s “gifts” comment, we shouldn’t really be surprised to discover fissures opening up in the Republican establishment between Pro-Romney and Pro-Christie forces. I’m not saying Drudge’s opinions are invalid, but this is high-level national politics, folks. You need to consider everyone’s possible motivations/alliances before rendering judgment.
1) Needless GOP bloodshed. The long Republican primary battle was unecessarily contentious and no one epitomized the irrationality of this more than Rick Santorum who continued to take shots at Mitt Romney well past closing time. And Newt Gingrich wasn’t much better. All of this simply set the stage for . . .
2) Obama’s early negative blitz. The Obama team wisely decided to define Romney before he had a chance to define himself. So, they gambled and took a huge chunk of dough early on and invested it in a relentlessly negative ad campaign painting a picture of Romney as a selfish, disconnected corporate titan who cared only about the rich: self-centered, mean, uncaring and greedy. People say they hate negative ads, but people remember negative ads. Since Romney held back and didn’t immediately answer the ads and forcefully counterpunch, this pre-emptive Obama effort worked.
In the four years that this website has been operational AND covering Chris Christie, Save Jerseyans, I can’t remember seeing more Republicans rake him over the coals.
Anti-Christie angst is moving from the “anecdotal” to the “too many to be anecdotal” realm. I’ve spoken to or interacted through Save Jersey with folks who were confirmed Christiephiles in 2009. Rank-and-file types. Attended phone banks. Patronized events. Begged coworkers to “give him a chance” in this reliably blue state. In a few cases, they worked for GOP affiliated groups that lent him support. And they’re not mad today. They’re positively furious.
They really, truly think Chris Christie played a material role (ranging from “not helpful” to “intentional,” depending upon who you ask) in “sinking” Mitt Romney by hosting President Obama for a Halloween Hurricane Sandy damage inspection tour. That tour is now haunting those who harbored presidential aspirations for New Jersey’s top Republican.
Nate Silver and Save Jersey can’t both be right, folks.
Everyone’s pretty sure Dick Morris is wrong. Not because I don’t like his outcome! I’m just a realist, and this country has changed a lot since 1980 (we’re much more diverse, and there’s a lot more people living subsisting on the public dime); Barack Obama is also a significantly stronger incumbent than Jimmy Carter.
I’ve nevertheless predicting a Romney victory for reasons explained here.
We’ll know the answer soon enough. About 36 hours from now? Or sooner if Dick Morris is indeed correct…
What do YOU think? Let’s hear it… and if you’re feeling lucky, give the best argument for your electoral theory in the comments section below…
Save Jersey's Final Electoral Projection (No Leaners): Romney 320, Obama 218
One day to go, Save Jerseyans.
Building off of our final 11/2/12 projection (without toss ups included), I’ve decided to take a shot in the dark and eliminate leaners/toss ups from our final Save Jersey electoral projection. This is my political nerd version of living dangerously…
The same basic methodological rules apply as before. Of particular note, I’m still refusing to put any stock in absurd polls with turnout models that will never be realized. Case in point? Last night’s CNN poll (akin to a recent Q poll in VA) wherein Mitt Romney manages to (1) win Independents by 22-points but (2) still finds himself tied with the President, 49-49, owing to a… D+11 turnout model? When Dems managed just D+7 in ’08?
Thirteen states, one post, 320 electoral votes projected for Mitt Romney…
Projected Winner: Obama
Think Arizona, but significantly more Hispanic and with a strong union-backed machine based in and around Las Vegas. All hope still isn’t lost. Obama’s leads are persistent but close and yes, a bit skewed. Lots of NRA members outside of Clark County. There’s also not-so-bad data in certain bellwethers like Washoe County. I’m primarily throwing this one to O because Romney is on the air more than he’s on the ground. He seems to think it’s not his best shot of the Obama so-called “firewall” states. So why should I?
Projected Winner: Romney
Obama is far less attentive to North Carolina than Mitt’s been to Nevada. The President hasn’t been there in some time… a North Carolina convention helped him not at all, and the gay marriage amendment provided a stark demonstration of GOP strength in the wake of 2010. He effectively abandoned the state after initial early voting totals showed OFA upside down versus 2008. Now it’s Romney in a walk.
One of the most advertised and yet under-analyzed themes of this presidential campaign is President Obama’s slogan “Forward”.
It’s been said that Karl Marx used a similar phrase to generate support for his worker’s movement in the 1800’s that resulted in the formation of the Communist Party. Whether Obama and his campaign managers sought to mirror Marx, consciously or unconsciously, is unknown.
However, what we do know is that President Obama is urging voters to support his re-election because “we’ve come too far to turn back now.”
The question is “too far to what?” In what direction are we traveling and what is our ultimate destination? Perhaps more importantly, does the driver have any idea how to operate the vehicle?
Only 4 full days left to go before Election Day 2012 is decided, Save Jerseyans.
Where does the White House race stand?
Seven (7) states changed position since our last projection on October 24th, and all of them moved in Governor Romney’s direction. Overall, Mitt Romney gained a net of eighteen (18) electoral votes over the past week and Barack Obama lost forty-six (46). Fifty-six (56) are still complete toss-ups, but the winds down the stretch clearly favor Governor Romney.
You’ll also notice a common thread this week: early voting analysis. Why? Larger numbers of Americans are doing it every year. I’m still operating under the educated assumption that many national and state polls are skewed (badly) by using 2008 turnout models. Even in those polls, however, Obama is locked in a close, margin-of-error race despite projected favorable Democrat turnout conditions… not good for him!
THEREFORE, my Save Jersey map assumes Obama is in knee-deep electoral doo-doo anywhere (1) early voting is way down, particularly in his key counties, and (2) the President continues to poll well below the 50% mark (since undecideds this late in the game typically don’t vote at all or break in high percentages to the challenger). Mitt’s ground game is as good or better this timeaccording to most reliable sources. Obama needs at least an Election 2008-ish turnout to stay competitive considering how poorly his early vote operations is performing…
I’ll explain these latest developments below the fold….
One of the things that people like best about Gov. Chris Christie is his candor.
Sure, sometimes he crosses the line and comes across as both rude and condescending, but most people still find his frank talk refreshing… especially in today’s politically correct world filled with nothing more than sound bites and poll-tested positions.
And it’s not just New Jerseyans that approve of Gov. Christie’s shoot-straight-from-the-hip attitude. Across America, he is arguably the most popular – and yes, polarizing – of the country’s 50 state chief executives.
However, as much as I applaud Gov. Christie’s transparency and his stellar record in office, I cringed at the way he publicly embraced President Obama during his tour of the storm-ravaged Jersey Shore. And I was equally appalled at his incredibly poor choice of words that seemed to throw Governor Romney under the proverbial bus.
But please don’t lose sight of the fact that life will inevitably go on, state residents will unite to rebuild our communities, neighbors will generously assist those in need… and then we’re going to do our part to elect a brand new POTUS on November 6th. That’s how Americans roll. You can’t keep us down for long.
Distracted Save Jerseyans will consequently find today’s polling news a welcome respite from ad nauseum storm coverage:
All you need to do is dig a little into the PPP poll data tables to reveal its fatal flaws. They have Mitt up 4-point among indies; moreover, the PPP turnout sample is D+8 (D 43%, R 35%, I/O 21%). Not realistic! In 2008, Democrats in Ohio enjoyed a D+5 advantage. In 2008, Republicans produced a R+5 turnout. So according to PPP’s logic, Obama now needed better than ’08 turnout to triumph. Good luck with that, Axelrod. The PPP also Ohio poll assumes that roughly 36% of poll participants are actually early voters, among whom Obama posts a massive 27% advantage. That margin may hold, but as of now, only about 20% of raw Ohio likely voters have voted early. You don’t have to be a math genius to understand how that remarkable assumption might skew PPP’s results in the President’s favor.
Take heart, stormed battered Save Jerseyans. Mitt is winning in Ohio. Take it to the bank.
With two nights of post-final debate polling in the can, Save Jerseyans, we still haven’t see a bounce for the President despite the best attempts of some to portray his performance as a “points” victory. Mitt Romney led by 0.9 in the RCP average before the debate, and he’s up by 0.9 today.
You also shouldn’t be surprised that Governor Romney continues to improve quicker than President Obama’s polling position is deteriorating…
Of the 4 national public polls released today (with polling sample periods through yesterday, 10/14/12), Romney hits the magic 50% in 3 of 4. Obama reaches only 47% in the one poll showing him ahead; that’s a dangerously low place for an incumbent to be 12-days out. Moreover, of the last 10 national public polls, Romney leads in 6 (with a 2.83-point average), Obama is ahead in 3 (with an average lead of 2.33-points), and in one poll they’re completely tied. Obama cracked 48% in just one survey.
What’s happening? A lot. For starters, Mitt Romney has virtually erased the gender gap(a development reflected in a new AP poll with interviews through 10/23/12).
So don’t get bummed out by Democrat/MSM/MSNBC spin regarding the Electoral College, folks. Polling is still trending decisively in Mitt’s direction. Unskewed polling averages (utilizing hybrid ’08/’04 turnout models instead of unrealistic ’08 once-in-a-generation-pro-Democrat models) show Mitt with comfortably more than the 270 required to win; Ohio in particular is better than it looks, and NRO has a great article explaining why today (hint: skewed poll analysis). I’m going to carefully watch the results and continue to consult with people in-the-know through the weekend, but I wouldn’t be shocked if more progress for Governor Romney is reflected in our next Save Jersey Electoral College Projection.
Five (5) states changed hands: two (2) moved in the President’s direction, and three (3) moved towards Governor Romney. Overall, Mitt Romney gained a net of ten (10) electoral votes since our last survey, and Barack Obama netted six (6). Eighteen (18) are still complete toss-ups. I’ll explain these developments below the fold….