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Tag: Poll

Christie Soliciting Funds for Bell

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Jeff BellThe NJ GOP is certainly stepping up its online fundraising efforts in 2014, Save Jerseyans.

After using its formidable online list serve to raise money for Wisconsin’s Scott Walker last week, this Thursday, the Sate Republican Committee shared an e-mail signed by Governor Christie asking donors to donate directly to Jeff Bell’s U.S. Senate campaign and, having done so, “reject the failed agenda of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.” The e-mail blast further noted how recent polling suggests a single-digit race.

More help might be coming soon for the GOP nominee taking on Cory Booker (D-Twitter) in November. Governor Christie’s long-time confidante and national Republican emissary Bill Palatucci recently promised a Christie-headlined fundraiser for Bell.

The NJ GOP’s blast e-mail is below the fold:

CONTINUE READING….

The Poll That’s Bad News for Almost Everyone

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

rand paul…except for Rand Paul?

We got new polling results this past week, Save Jerseyans, showing Hillary Clinton with a lead over her hypothetical Republican opponents – including our own Governor Chris Christie – but her lead was significantly reduced after a summer of relatively negative headlines compounded by a weaker-than-expected book tour.

I agree that it’s objectively bad new for Hillary, just not in the way that most media outlets are reporting it. This poll also isn’t necessarily good news for the Republican Party.

CONTINUE READING….

New Poll: Obama Leading Dems To Defeat

By Dan Cirucci | Dan Cirucci’s Blogspot

Obama in GermanyA new, national McClatchy-Marist poll is out and it shows that President Barack Obama is dragging down his party and hurting the prospects of fellow Democrats as they head into midterm elections. Indeed, the potential repercussions of the president’s slide are serious.

Consider the following:

  • Just 40 percent of voters polled approve of the way Obama’s doing his job. This ties his worst mark in three years and the second worst of his presidency.

CONTINUE READING….

Don’t Blame It On the Bridge

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

christie smiling town hall

My words, not the Q Pollsters’ words.

The data is nevertheless convincing. Click here to see the report for yourselves. The Bipartisanship Governor is quickly becoming one of America’s most polarizing, Save Jerseyans. Quinnipiac is reporting that Governor Christie’s approval/disapproval ratings now stand 49% and 47% respectively. They’re divided evenly – 48% to 48% – on the question of whether he’s a bully and 47% to 47% on personal favorability.

Mind the trend; it’s his lowest job approval rating since August 2011 when he stood at 47%. Men modestly approve of the job he’s doing (54%) as opposed to only 44% of women, a dramatic reversal from this time last year. Support among Democrats has collapsed (down to 25%) and Independent voter approval is slightly negative at 50%.

Why? I’ll say this much: it’d be a fatal mistake for Christie backers to assume it’s 100% attributable to G.W. access for Fort Lee, New Jersey…

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Another Poll Shows Bell Close to Booker (But He Needs Help!)

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

jeff bellCory Booker (D-Twitter) has every advantage in the world this cycle, Save Jerseyans, but we now have a fourth consecutive public polling report (this time from Quinnipiac) showing the freshman Dem in trouble, this time leading challenger Jeff Bell trailing by only 10-points, 47% to 37 percent, despite the fact that a full 77% of voters polled don’t feel as if they know enough about Bell to form an opinion.

Click here to see it.

It’s clear what’s happening here; the folks at Q also found that “President Barack Obama gets a negative 44 – 52 percent job approval rating, nearly matching his lowest rating ever in New Jersey, a negative 43 – 52 percent score in an October 13, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll.” Reuters recently discovered a similar result with 37% of New Jerseyans strongly disapproving of our Child President. The President’s polling collapse is horrible news for Dems nationally and politically-fatal news for N.J. Dem House challengers like Aimee Belgard in NJ-03 and Bill Hughes in NJ-02. If this keeps up, districts like NJ-12 could even come into serious play by October.

But Booker’s only in trouble if outside groups show up with $$$. This is your last chance, NRSC/SCF/Tea Party, etc. Get on board now and GROW THE MAP! We’ve got a race in New Jersey without anyone on our side spending a single dime… time to get in the game…

P.S. Check out my interview with Jeff Bell if you haven’t already.

Cook Says LoBo is a ‘Solid R’

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Lobiondo and ChristieDemocrats are quickly running out of House pick up opportunities in the Garden State, Save Jerseyans. Some of that’s by design in the wake of redistricting; to a large extent, however, it’s a sign of what is looking like an ugly midterm cycle for the President’s party.

Over the weekend, venerated political handicapper Charlie Cook moved Frank LoBiondo’s 2nd Congressional District to “solid Republican” from the likely column; 5 of 6 districts currently held by the NJ GOP are considered solid:

CONTINUE READING….

Bell Can Beat Booker

By Jim Pezzullo | The Save Jersey Blog

jeff bellA whopping 59% of Americans have a negative view of the GOP, while a smaller majority – 50% – feel negatively about the Democrats. In the early 90s, the GOP polled at 53% favorable, and peaked in 2002 at 61% favorable. It’s hard to dispute that the Republican brand has been tarnished in recent years for any number of reasons.

So the question is: how are Republicans doing so well in so many Senate races despite crushing negativity towards their party? And how can this help Jeff Bell in a state where voters are hugely dissatisfied with both parties?

The answer lies in the candidates themselves.

CONTINUE READING….

200+ Days In, Staying Alive is Helping Christie

By Joe Sinagra | The Save Jersey Blog

George_Washington_Bridge,_HAER_NY-129-8Back in January I wrote an article in Matt Rooney’s Save Jersey about Bridgegate jumping the shark, the witch hunt launched by Democrats trying to discredit Gov. Chris Christie by connecting him with scandal surrounding allegedly politically-motivated Fort Lee lane closures.

And guess what, Save Jerseyans? In all the months since the scandal broke (202 days since the legendary marathon presser), the Governor has in no way been connected with any knowledge of what transpired, try as they might Democrats have not been able to connect the dots. You would think with all the testimony, all the meetings, all the questions, and all of the people who testified, that one individual would have cracked under the pressure and said it was the Governor who ordered the lane closings…. had it really gone down like that.

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Christie Tops CNN Poll… Sort Of

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Governor Chris Christie stumping in Iowa during Election 2012.

Governor Chris Christie stumping in Iowa during Election 2012.

Another new poll (this one from CNN) dropped Tuesday showing Chris Christie leading the GP 2016 hypothetical primary pack by 1-point, Save Jerseyans. The other “top” contenders – Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee – are tied at 12%.

I’m starting to loathe these polls for a few different reasons (no offense intended, CNN, ’cause you’re hardly the only offenders).

For starters, in a crowded primary, the state-by-state primary/caucus polls are what matters.

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Buyers’ Remorse

Now Americans Say They Want Romney

By Dan Cirucci | Dan Cirucci’s Blogspot

Romney vs. ObamaGet this: Mitt Romney would win the popular vote if a rematch of the 2012 election against President Obama were held today, a new CNN/ORC poll shows.

According to the poll, if the 2012 election were held again today, Romney would receive 53% of the popular vote while Obama would receive only 44%, CNN reported. That’s quite a turnaround, especially when you consider that Obama beat Romney 51%-47% in the actual election.

And there’s more interesting news in the poll:

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3rd Poll Shows Booker Vulnerable

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Bell poses for a photograph with NJ-06 Congressional Candidate Anthony E Wilkinson.

Bell poses for a photograph with NJ-06 Congressional Candidate Anthony E Wilkinson.

Am I the only one who senses another blown opportunity in the making, Save Jerseyans?

After two summer polls found Cory Booker (D-Twitter) under 50% in his quest for a full Senate term head-to-head with GOP challenger Jeff Bell, we now have a NYT-CBS poll with Booker at 50% but Bell nipping at his heels at 43%, only 7-points back (for those of you who learned math in a NJEA failure factory).

Yes, Bell has an uphill climb against the younger, hipper, well-heeled Democrat superstar who, of course, hasn’t gone on television yet. But you can turn that analysis on its head by pointing out that Bell, who only recently returned to New Jersey residency and doesn’t have two nickles to rub together, also hasn’t done much of anything.

CONTINUE READING….

Rothenberg Moves NJ-03 to ‘Tilt GOP’

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

MacArthur (center back) and supporters walk in Riverton 4th of July Parade

MacArthur (center back) and supporters walk in Riverton 4th of July Parade

Another major institution of political prognostication is recognizing a decidedly pro-GOP trend in NJ-03, Save Jerseyans; this time, it’s “Pure Toss-Up” to
Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.”

“Barack Obama won the district twice, so this is the type of district Democrats have to win in order to creep closer to the majority,” opined Nathan L. Gonzales, Deputy Editor of The Rothenberg Political Report, in a report released Thursday, “[b]ut their challenge is indicative of how difficult this cycle has been so far.”

Few serious observers think Democrat Freeholder Aimee Belgard’s comically lame “click and paste” campaign is gaining traction against Republican Tom MacArthur in a district that’s only gone Democrat once since Reconstruction despite recent demographic shifts in Burlington County that should, in theory, benefit Dems.

Gonzales’s opinion is more measured than those of his peers. Immediately following the June Primary, The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato, respectively, moved NJ-03 from “toss up” to “lean Republican.”

 

2nd Poll Finds Booker Under 50%

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Booker-Corzine-Obama-and-Weinberg43% to Republican nominee Jeff Bell’s 23%, Save Jerseyans (click here to read the full report/data tables).

Here are some more details from Patrick Murray’s Monmouth Polling Institute:

“When asked whether Booker should be reelected, 44% of New Jersey voters say he deserves another term while 35% say it is time to have someone else in that Senate seat. Four months ago, a solid majority of 55% said that Booker should be reelected. The number of voters who say it is time for someone new, though, is basically the same as it was in February (33%). The shift in support for Booker has come from those who previously said he deserved reelection but now say they are unsure – 21%, up from 12% in February.”

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Christie Improves But Struggles Against Hilldawg in Iowa

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Iowa FlagStatistical noise? Or a trend?

What difference does it make? We’ve got a long way to go, Save Jerseyans…

Click here to view the results of the latest Quinnipiac 2016 Iowa poll showing Governor Chris Christie trailing Hillary “Hilldawg” Clinton by 8-points, 44% to 36%, a noticeable improvement from Hilldawg’s 13-points, 48% to 35% lead back in March when (1) Bridgegate was at its height but before (2) a lackluster book tour and more negative foreign policy news took more shine off of the Obama Administration alumni pool’s resume.

In case you were wondering why Governor Christie attended the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s confab last week, the polling results suggest his issues may partially cultural/regional; Paul (KY), Ryan (WI) and Huckabee (AR) all perform slightly stronger against the leading Democrat. Only Jeb Bush performs worse.

 

#NJSEN Poll: Booker Under 50%

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Jeff BellHe’s got a steep hill to climb, Save Jerseyans, but a new Rasmussen Reports poll out Thursday found GOP U.S. Senate nominee Jeff Bell trailing Cory Booker (D-Twitter) by just 13-points, 48% to 35%, in New Jersey. A full 4% said “other and 13% are undecided with about 4 1/2 months to go.

Steve Lonegan lost to Booker by 11-points in last year’s special election. Joe Kyrillos lost by almost 20-points and failed to break the 40% mark in 2012, the last N.J. U.S. Senate race to occur in a general election cycle.

Don’t get too excited, but while polling under 50% is hardly fatal for an incumbent a few months out, it also isn’t great given Booker’s near universal name recognition.

If 2014 turns out to be a GOP cycle, then a well-funded Republican challenger could give the Twitter Senator a run for his money. If. Unfortunately for us, no one in the Republican hierarchy gave enough of a crap to recruit such a candidate – or groom an existing candidate – to challenge Booker; you, me, and the four GOP primary candidates were the only ones who cared.

Let’s do the best we can which is NO SMALL THING. Click here to get started by liking Jeff’s new Facebook page. 

 

Predicting CD3: Who Wins? By What?

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

MacArthur and Lonegan debate on WPHT Radio

MacArthur and Lonegan debate on WPHT Radio

I don’t think this post requires an explanation, right?

CD3 is the only truly “competitive” primary on the GOP house side of the ledger this cycle, and for the record, I’m placing the word ‘competitive’ in quotes because I’m not sure whether the final margin will seem competitive on its face when the votes are tallied on Tuesday evening. Available polling suggests that Tom MacArthur is headed for a low-double digit victory over Steve Lonegan tomorrow night.

That being said, when we’re talking about a low turnout non-presidential primary cycle, Save Jerseyans, it’s hard to guarantee exactly who is will show up. The MacArthur folks are employing the phrase “cautiously optimistic” which, given everything we know, is more than fair.

Your take? Vote and comment below the fold….

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Poll: Christie/Bush/Paul Running Behind

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Pollster John Zogby hasn’t fully recovered his reputation since the 2004 exit polling predicting a Kerry landslide that never mercifully never materialized, Save Jerseyans, but his most recent 2016-related survey is attracting attention from political junkies.

Why? Because ominous news for Republicans is always interesting to opinion drivers, and the results of his Zogby Analytics poll reveal a double-edged sword for 2016′s most-discussed GOP contenders: a front runner Democrat (Hillary Clinton) under 50% despite nearly universal name recognition BUT support for Republican alternatives mired in the 30-something range…

Will we wake up on a cold day in January 2017 and wonder for what does it profit a man to gain the U.S. Senate and forfeit the White House to a Clinton?

Zogby says it’s a demographic problem: 

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