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Tag: Poll

Rothenberg Moves NJ-03 to ‘Tilt GOP’

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

MacArthur (center back) and supporters walk in Riverton 4th of July Parade

MacArthur (center back) and supporters walk in Riverton 4th of July Parade

Another major institution of political prognostication is recognizing a decidedly pro-GOP trend in NJ-03, Save Jerseyans; this time, it’s “Pure Toss-Up” to
Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.”

“Barack Obama won the district twice, so this is the type of district Democrats have to win in order to creep closer to the majority,” opined Nathan L. Gonzales, Deputy Editor of The Rothenberg Political Report, in a report released Thursday, “[b]ut their challenge is indicative of how difficult this cycle has been so far.”

Few serious observers think Democrat Freeholder Aimee Belgard’s comically lame “click and paste” campaign is gaining traction against Republican Tom MacArthur in a district that’s only gone Democrat once since Reconstruction despite recent demographic shifts in Burlington County that should, in theory, benefit Dems.

Gonzales’s opinion is more measured than those of his peers. Immediately following the June Primary, The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato, respectively, moved NJ-03 from “toss up” to “lean Republican.”


2nd Poll Finds Booker Under 50%

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Booker-Corzine-Obama-and-Weinberg43% to Republican nominee Jeff Bell’s 23%, Save Jerseyans (click here to read the full report/data tables).

Here are some more details from Patrick Murray’s Monmouth Polling Institute:

“When asked whether Booker should be reelected, 44% of New Jersey voters say he deserves another term while 35% say it is time to have someone else in that Senate seat. Four months ago, a solid majority of 55% said that Booker should be reelected. The number of voters who say it is time for someone new, though, is basically the same as it was in February (33%). The shift in support for Booker has come from those who previously said he deserved reelection but now say they are unsure – 21%, up from 12% in February.”


Christie Improves But Struggles Against Hilldawg in Iowa

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Iowa FlagStatistical noise? Or a trend?

What difference does it make? We’ve got a long way to go, Save Jerseyans…

Click here to view the results of the latest Quinnipiac 2016 Iowa poll showing Governor Chris Christie trailing Hillary “Hilldawg” Clinton by 8-points, 44% to 36%, a noticeable improvement from Hilldawg’s 13-points, 48% to 35% lead back in March when (1) Bridgegate was at its height but before (2) a lackluster book tour and more negative foreign policy news took more shine off of the Obama Administration alumni pool’s resume.

In case you were wondering why Governor Christie attended the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s confab last week, the polling results suggest his issues may partially cultural/regional; Paul (KY), Ryan (WI) and Huckabee (AR) all perform slightly stronger against the leading Democrat. Only Jeb Bush performs worse.


#NJSEN Poll: Booker Under 50%

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Jeff BellHe’s got a steep hill to climb, Save Jerseyans, but a new Rasmussen Reports poll out Thursday found GOP U.S. Senate nominee Jeff Bell trailing Cory Booker (D-Twitter) by just 13-points, 48% to 35%, in New Jersey. A full 4% said “other and 13% are undecided with about 4 1/2 months to go.

Steve Lonegan lost to Booker by 11-points in last year’s special election. Joe Kyrillos lost by almost 20-points and failed to break the 40% mark in 2012, the last N.J. U.S. Senate race to occur in a general election cycle.

Don’t get too excited, but while polling under 50% is hardly fatal for an incumbent a few months out, it also isn’t great given Booker’s near universal name recognition.

If 2014 turns out to be a GOP cycle, then a well-funded Republican challenger could give the Twitter Senator a run for his money. If. Unfortunately for us, no one in the Republican hierarchy gave enough of a crap to recruit such a candidate – or groom an existing candidate – to challenge Booker; you, me, and the four GOP primary candidates were the only ones who cared.

Let’s do the best we can which is NO SMALL THING. Click here to get started by liking Jeff’s new Facebook page. 


Predicting CD3: Who Wins? By What?

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

MacArthur and Lonegan debate on WPHT Radio

MacArthur and Lonegan debate on WPHT Radio

I don’t think this post requires an explanation, right?

CD3 is the only truly “competitive” primary on the GOP house side of the ledger this cycle, and for the record, I’m placing the word ‘competitive’ in quotes because I’m not sure whether the final margin will seem competitive on its face when the votes are tallied on Tuesday evening. Available polling suggests that Tom MacArthur is headed for a low-double digit victory over Steve Lonegan tomorrow night.

That being said, when we’re talking about a low turnout non-presidential primary cycle, Save Jerseyans, it’s hard to guarantee exactly who is will show up. The MacArthur folks are employing the phrase “cautiously optimistic” which, given everything we know, is more than fair.

Your take? Vote and comment below the fold….


Poll: Christie/Bush/Paul Running Behind

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Pollster John Zogby hasn’t fully recovered his reputation since the 2004 exit polling predicting a Kerry landslide that never mercifully never materialized, Save Jerseyans, but his most recent 2016-related survey is attracting attention from political junkies.

Why? Because ominous news for Republicans is always interesting to opinion drivers, and the results of his Zogby Analytics poll reveal a double-edged sword for 2016′s most-discussed GOP contenders: a front runner Democrat (Hillary Clinton) under 50% despite nearly universal name recognition BUT support for Republican alternatives mired in the 30-something range…

Will we wake up on a cold day in January 2017 and wonder for what does it profit a man to gain the U.S. Senate and forfeit the White House to a Clinton?

Zogby says it’s a demographic problem: 


Poll: MacArthur Up By 13-Points

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Steve Lonegan (left) and Tom MacArthur (right) with Michael Aron during a televised debate.

Steve Lonegan (left) and Tom MacArthur (right) with Michael Aron during a televised debate.

Time may be running out for Steve Lonegan to reverse the momentum and regain the upper hand in CD3, Save Jerseyans. That’s not a “RINO” observation. I’m just looking at the numbers.

Data: a new poll out Wednesday morning from the American Action Network found Lonegan’s rival Tom MacArthur leading by 13-points (43% to 30%) among likely GOP primary voters.

You can click here to read the full report. Surveyors found MacArthur leading Lonegan across the board including among those who consider themselves “very conservative.”

The difference-maker? Lonegan’s likability…


Monmouth Poll: MacArthur Up Big On Lonegan

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

MacArthurA new poll from Patrick Murray’s Monmouth polling outfit seems to confirm the results of a recent internal MacArthur campaign showing Steve Lonegan’s opponent building a significant lead (46% to 35%) among likely voters in the CD3 primary, Save Jerseyans:

“MacArthur recently received the endorsement of outgoing Congressman Jon Runyan. MacArthur holds a 53% to 32% advantage among CD03 Republicans who strongly approve of the job that Runyan has done during his two terms in the House of Representatives and has a similar 48% to 31% edge among those who somewhat approve of Runyan. Among those who disapprove of Runyan’s performance, though, Lonegan has a lead of 51% to 31%, but this group makes up a very small proportion of the electorate. Overall, 34% of likely CD03 GOP voters strongly approve of Runyan’s tenure in Congress and another 34% approve somewhat, while just 17% disapprove.”

Click here to read the full results.


Outgunned Lonegan Grabs for the Mic

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Approximately 50 supporters gather to watch Steve Lonegan launch his CD3 campaign in Toms River. (2/6/14)

Approximately 50 supporters gather to watch Steve Lonegan launch his CD3 campaign in Toms River. (2/6/14)

With available evidence suggesting that his name recognition-generated early advantage is fading in the face of a $2 million counterattack from the campaign of primary opponent Tom MacArthur, Save Jerseyans, and facing the threat of legal action for controversial statements related to MacArthur’s former career, former Mayor Steve Lonegan is leaning on a favorite Christie tactic to maximize exposure: the town hall.

His campaign announced two upcoming events over the weekend, one for each of the two counties comprising CD3:

Monday, May 12, 2014
Lacey VFW Post 10118
2652 W. Lacey Road
Forked River, NJ 08731


Poll Memo: MacArthur Takes 9pt Lead

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Tom MacArthur greets a young supporter

Tom MacArthur greets a young supporter

Heads up, Save Jerseyans: a new internal poll from the CD3 campaign of Tom MacArthur suggests that he now has an edge on opponent Steve Lonegan in one of this year’s hottest (some would say “ugliest”) national Republican House primaries.

If it’s accurate, the “swing” reflected in these numbers is objectively impressive regardless of which horse you claim in this race.

Click here to view the polling memorandum obtained exclusively by Save Jersey. It details survey results from veteran New Jersey GOP pollster Adam Geller; his firm conducted interviews with 400 likely GOP Primary voters in CD3 this week, and he says the results show MacArthur leading Lonegan 37% to 28% after trailing Lonegan in internal polling by 50%-7% only several weeks ago.


Obama And Obamacare Are Losers, Poll Says

By Dan Cirucci | Dan Cirucci’s Blogspot

Obama the LiarFor months, we’ve been telling you that Obama is tanking.

For months, we’ve been warning that he really has no coherent foreign policy and that his actions in the face of the crisis in Ukraine were marking him as weak and inept. We also warned that the appointments of Kerry and Hagel were mistakes that would boomerang and that people still had concerns about Benghazi, the domestic spying, IRS harassment of the Tea Party and other matters.

For years, we pointed out that Obamacare was an outrageous overreach and that people did not support such a massive power grab by the federal government.

And now (though not for the first time) the numbers validate what we’ve been saying.


Christie Pulls Even in Colorado

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Cherokee Pass ColoradoGovernor Chris Christie is performing better in the Centennial State as of late notwithstanding his recent spat over legalized pot with his Democrat counterpart John Hickenlooper and a particularly brutal hit piece in yesterday’s Denver Post.

Christie now ties Hillary Clinton 42 to 42 percent in the latest Quinnipiac poll head-to-head match up, superior to Jeb Bush (who loses 45 -40) and Mike Huckabee (45 – 44).

Only one Republican contender performs better than Christie in Colorado: Rand Paul, the sometimes-Christie antagonist who beats Hilldawg 48 to 45 percent and boasts the highest favorability rating, too. “The road to the White House has many twists and turns, but right now, U.S. Sen. Rand Paul is the man to beat in Colorado,”  said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll. 

GOP presidential fortunes appear to be improving, unsurprisingly, as the outgoing Democrat President’s wane. Colorado voters disapprove of the Barack Obama’s job performance by a wide 59 – 38 percent margin despite having twice carried the state.


Christie Leads Fox News Poll

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

A little welcome 2016 news last night (Thursday) for Governor Christie, Save Jerseyans, via a Fox News poll of 1,012 registered voters:

Fox 2016 Poll - April 2014

Tortoises Find Help. Sandy Victims? Meh.

Sandy Response Support Skids in New Poll

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Florida to New Jersey Sandy TruckThe big takeaway excerpt of the most recent survey report from Monmouth Pollster Patrick Murray:

Among those residents who live in New Jersey’s hardest hit communities, only 41% are satisfied with the state’s recovery efforts while a decided majority (54%) are dissatisfied. In the remainder of the state, 49% are satisfied while 41% are dissatisfied. This marks the first time that residents of hardest hit communities have shown a significant difference in satisfaction levels when compared to residents in other parts of the state. In prior polls, these two groups’ satisfaction levels differed by no more than five percentage points.


Iowa Overboard

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog


By both definitions of the word?

Context: Governor Christie told Diane Sawyer last month that “they love me in Iowa,” Save Jerseyans, but a new Suffolk University poll out Wednesday strongly suggested that the steady drumbeat of Bridgegate news, manufactured or not, is close to ending the presidential aspirations of the man who these same polls reported could give the GOP its best chance of defeating Hilldawg in 2016.

Or not…


Quinnipiac Poll: New Jersey Voters Approve Of Christie More Than Obama, Menendez or Booker

New Jersey Voters Disapprove of the State Legislature, 36-48%

By Art Gallagher |

christie town hall argumentQuinnipiac Poll released this morning indicates that, despite the beating he has been taking in the local and national media since January, Governor Chris Christie has higher approval ratings than President Barack Obama, Senator Bob Menendez and Senator Cory Booker, among New Jersey voters.

Quinnipiac didn’t spin the poll that way in their narrative, but that is what the numbers indicate.  Most of the media coverage about this poll will be negative for Christie. Too many reporters and editors read the spin and not the numbers.

There is bad news for Christie in this poll.  His approval rating has dropped to 49-44% since January when it was 55-38%.

82% of Republicans and 54% of Independents approve of Christie’s job performance. Only 23% of Democrats give the Guv love.

The Governor’s bully rating is higher than ever before. Voters are now evenly split 48-48 on whether he’s a leader or a bully. In January they said he was more of a leader by 54-40 margin.

56% of voters think the Mastro Report, the internal investigation commissioned by the Governor’s Office that exonerated Christie from any involvement in the Bridgegate scandal was a “whitewash.”  Voters are split 46-46 over whether the legislative investigation into Bridgegate lead by Assemblyman John Wisniewski and Senator Loretta Weinberg is a legitimate investigation or a political witch-hunt.

Voters have a net negative impression of the State Legislature that crosses all party lines. Republicans disapprove of legislature 40-45, Democrats 40-43 and Independents 33-53.  The Legislature’s overall approval numbers are negative 36-48.

Read the rest of this entry »

Christie’s RGA is Making it Rain

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

Governor Chris Christie listens to a resident’s question in Belmar. March 25, 2014 MMM photo/Art Gallagher. Click for larger view.

Governor Chris Christie listens to a resident’s question in Belmar. March 25, 2014 MMM photo/Art Gallagher. Click for larger view.

Governor Chris Christie may have just had his best week of 2014, Save Jerseyans, or at least since January 9th.

We found out on Thursday that the Republican Governors Association (RGA) had posted a whopping $23.5 million in donations for the first quarter of 2014 (January 1st through March 31st), an achievement which is almost 3x better than its previous record high of $9.1 million.

Since Christie took over last November, the RGA raked in $33 million.

The slow bleed which has characterized his post-Bridgegate polling position, both in New Jersey and nationally, appears to have stopped. A new Quinnipaic poll found him nipping at Hillary Clinton’s heels in Virginia and outperforming all other hypothetical GOP contenders (though another survey showed voters opinions remained cooled). A fresh Monmouth University poll pegged his approval rating at just above 50% or roughly where it was the prior month.

Light at the end of the tunnel? Or just the eye of the storm? It may be the former provided that whatever the U.S. Attorney ultimately concludes doesn’t differ materially from the Governor’s internal investigation…