New Jersey’s average property tax bill hit $9,284 for 2021, Save Jerseyans, the highest on record and close to a 2% increase over 2020. We also know that while this is the average bill, most suburbanites in Central and North Jersey pay a lot more.
“The conditions residents are dealing with every day are in stark contrast to the rosy picture painted by the Governor in his speech this week,” State Senator Kristin Corrado (R-40) said this week following Phil Murphy’s budget address. “Murphy’s recent statements prove he is disconnected. It is clear he doesn’t comprehend the burden his policies have created for hard-working families, seniors on fixed incomes and everybody in between.”
–
That’s all undeniably true except maybe for the “disconnected” party. Yes, Murphy has no clue what average residents go through but no, Murphy might understand how people feel about property taxes better than his political adversaries.
Murphy – who openly mocked “one issue voters” worried about property taxes – won reelection by 3+ points in November. Democrats still control the legislature and most county government seats despite significant GOP gains down in South Jersey and a few previously-red pockets of the North.
2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli worked his tail off and did very well in most of the state (for a Republican) but failed to overcome Murphy statewide by underperforming in wealthy suburbs with massive property tax burdens that were solid for the GOP as recently as a decade ago. He even lost his home county of Somerset where wokeness seems to count for more than affordability these days with a majority of voters. By the way: the same ***wrong*** polls that predicted a Murphy landslide still showed Ciattarelli running competitively or ahead on the tax issue.
Ciattarelli, who was a CPA and successful businessman before his stint in public office, already announced he’s in for 2025, and he’s still banging the property tax drum, tweeting – here and here in just the last few days about the state’s undeniable property tax crisis. He’s certainly not wrong in his criticism, but will anyone persuadable be moved?
Do most New Jersey voters simply not care about property taxes because of “the services” or any number of other reasons?
Do they simply care more about other issues on which GOP candidates don’t perform as well?
Or is it a matter of voters believing the Democrats’ dishonest math, e.g. that life here would be less expensive if the rich would simply “pay their fair share”?
The answer is probably some combination of “all of the above,” so what likely matters moving forward is recognizing the impossibility of relying primarily on tax messaging as a viable road home for blue state Republicans. I wrote about this trend in early 2018 (before it was cool to talk about) and months prior to the midterm blue wave crashed in NJ-03, NJ-07 and NJ-11. I’ve yet to see any hard data over the intervening four years capable of changing my mind:
If Republicans want to start winning the hard races again, folks? Then they’ll need to persuade suburbanites not just that they’re better at math but also of the wisdom of their social positions, too, notably the need to confront the dangers posed to their children by woke schools, big government’s threat to parental control, and a degrading culture. Republicans win in slightly-less-blue Virginia and blue county school board battles suggest the mother of all social issues – education – is suddenly up for grabs if Republicans are willing and able to “go there.”
No one’s saying it’s an easy challenge. No one’s saying that different districts and states don’t require regional-specific messaging. What’s important is that Republicans in blue states develop a cultural rebuttal to the Left. I think they’ll be surprised by how many afraid-to-speak-up suburbanites agree with them, and if recent polls showing mass Hispanic dissatisfaction with the Democrats are accurate, then there’s an audience ready and waiting for a new narrative. It’s time to act.
–
