We have all seen the headlines and the quotes. Governor Christie says, emphatically, that he will not be running for President. He has said it so many times that “short of suicide” he does not know what else to do to convince the media and the pundits that he will not run. And while the Governor still finds himself to be included in a few nationwide polls now and then, the prospect of him jumping in has finally seemed to die down a bit as the first GOP debates taking place in May come a bit closer. But the question really is, why?
Have the voters stopped longing for a blunt, no nonsense personality? Have we all become desensitized and resigned to the fact that the nominee is likely to just be a Romney or a Huckabee or a Gingrich, someone who has been waiting for the shot, rather than a fresh face? No. In fact that could not be further from the truth. The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll shows that voters have not gotten over Christie, they simply found a knock off. Donald Trump.
Donald Trump burst on to the scene much in the way that he usually does. As a joke. The guy’s popularity and newest reserves of fortune comes from nothing more than headline grabbing (kind of similar to someone else in the GOP field). However, Trump has one thing that the “movement conservatives” do not. He speaks his mind, and it resonates with people. When you hear Trump in an interview, you can tell he is not scripted and certainly not coached. He says exactly what he thinks, when he thinks it. While this is the kind of behavior that can really ruin a campaign, it seems that the 2011 voter does not care. They want the candid, raw, and uncut. The boring and calculated Pawlenty’s of the world simply will not do.
The WSJ/NBC poll shows that Donald Trump, the only person in the poll who is not a politician, captures 17% of the vote to tie Mike Huckabee, a former Governor with his own national television show, for second place. The only candidate to edge out Trump was Romney, with 21%. No one else even came close. This is similar to recent Zogby polling that showed Christie leading a pack of Republicans with 23% of the vote and no other Republicans coming close. Sarah Palin, the next closest potential candidate, got barely over 10%. Both men have similar styles, ties to New Jersey, and a similar command of the Republican electorate.
It would have been interesting to see Christie and Trump go head to head in a national poll. Instead the WSJ/NBC poll took Trump out of the mix to see how it affected the rest of the group. Without the option for a straight talking candidate, Mitt Romney pulls ahead with 40% of the vote and New Gingrich leapfrogs Huckabee to pick up 20% for second place. With no wildcard in Christie or Trump, the inevitability of Romney sets right back in.
Do I think Trump will get the nomination? No. Is he even that electable? Probably not. Anything can happen, but If I had to put money on someone now it would certainly not be him. But thats not the point. The GOP got a wake up call when the country found out about Chris Christie, and the the RGA and the RNC took the hint and began to make a national icon out of him. Now it is time for the 2012 hopefuls to see the light. Pandering is not the way to victory. Going after just the Tea Party, or just the “End the Fed” people, or just the establishment is not going to work. The American voter wants more. They want someone who has an answer for everything without the fluffy nuance (I mean indecision) of an Obama or the excuses and flip flopping of a Romney (if they can avoid it). They want straight forward answers and common sense. Something that so far only Governor Christie and Donald Trump have been offering.
The voters wanted Chris Christie, when they could not have him, they went to what they perceived as the next best thing. The polling shows it. Now we will see how long it is before the rest of the field begins to realize exactly what they are missing.
