The latest Monmouth Poll results won’t fuss Phil Murphy much, Save Jerseyans. As a lame duck incumbent, a 50% to 40% approval rating ain’t wonderful but it’s also relatively solid particularly given how over-exposed Murphy was (by choice) during Covid-19.
It’s Murphy’s allies in the legislature who need to be concerned. Very concerned.
“Murphy’s approval rating is stable among his fellow Democrats (85% now and 86% in April 2022), but has dropped a few points among independents (43%, from 51% in 2022) and Republicans (12%, from 17%),” Monmouth explains, before adding that “[r]egionally, the governor’s approval has held fairly steady in North Jersey (54% now and 57% in 2022), but has declined in both Central Jersey (49%, from 60%) and South Jersey (41% from 48%).”
Unfortunately for Democrats? Most of the action in Election 2023 is in South Jersey: LD1, LD2, LD3, LD4, and LD8. The biggest fight in the entire state is in a Gloucester County-dominated legislative district (LD4) where Phil Murphy lost to Jack Ciattarelli by a decisive margin two years ago.
Two other highly competitive districts – LD11 and LD16 – are situated in Central Jersey where Murphy is stronger but now below 50%.
So to put it more plainly, Murphy is under 50% and trending downward in the regions where his party is hoping to pick up ground and, in some cases, finds itself playing defense. In South Jersey, where the Norcross Machine is on the ropes, Murphy is downright unpopular.
There’s a reason why Democrat legislative leaders are suddenly trying to distance themselves from Murphy on offshore wind and parental rights; back-to-school sales are on, pumpkin spice coffee is back, and the majority party is running short on time to avoid a second consecutive disastrous legislative cycle. Monmouth’s numbers would seem to validate their fears.
