There’s every indication that supermarket inflation, interest rates, and general concern over Joe Biden’s age (and ethics) are dragging down the incumbent nationwide and jeopardizing his reelection, Save Jerseyans.
But New Jersey shouldn’t be a concern. Our state hasn’t voted for a Republican in a presidential race since 1988.
2024 is unlikely to break the trend, but the latest Monmouth Poll results constitute a flashing red warning sign for the president and his Democrat Party. Biden’s statewide job approval rating is currently only 41% in a state that he carried by double-digits in 2020 and a 5-point drop since the beginning of the year; in South Jersey, home of the rapidly fading Norcross Machine, Biden’s approval rating is 35% and he’s not doing much better (40%) in Central Jersey.
South, by the way, is defined here as Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean, and Salem counties. Ocean isn’t a battleground but, then again, neither is Camden County save for a handful of towns (notably Gloucester Township which is situated in LD4).
Central encompasses Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, and Somerset.
What does it mean for 2023?
Biden’s woes are reflected in yesterday’s Monmouth results showing Phil Murphy also under 50% (though stronger than Biden) in South and Central Jersey. As I pointed out in that post, most of this cycle’s hotly-contested legislative races are located in South and Central Jersey.
So while Republicans aren’t likely to add New Jersey to the 2024 toss-up column anytime soon (especially while the GOP primary field remains a point of contention), Democrats running in 2023 should be officially approaching loose shits territory if they’re not there already.
