I think something is happening out there, folks…
No Republican presidential nominee has carried the state since 1988.
Is that about to change? A brand new co/efficient poll released Friday found Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump by a single point in the Garden State, a statistical tied given that the result was well within the poll’s margin of error. 13% remain undecided while 7% chose another candidate. The incumbent’s approval rating is in the toilet at 36% approve, 56% disapprove.
The survey also discovered Trump performing well across non-traditional Republican groups including earning 19% of the black vote and, astoundingly, 30% of New Jersey’s Hispanic voters. Trump trails among women by 7-points but leads among men by 11-points…
Don’t immediately dismiss this one as an outlier; an Emerson poll from March did find a 7-point race with Biden leading by single digits despite winning a sold double-digit victory in 2020 (57% to 41%). A younger Biden represented neighboring Delaware in the Senate for decades before becoming vice president, and former Democrat Senate President Steve Sweeney used to refer to him as South Jersey’s third senator. He’s not polling like an honorary son.
On the actual 2024 Senate side, Democrat Andy Kim is leading Republican Curtis Bashaw by 7-points, 41% to 34%, which is also tighter than what we’d ordinarily see.
The co/efficient poll was notably conducted almost entirely before the presidential debate which Biden was widely viewed to have lost (badly).
Developing…
