Here’s an observation, Save Jerseyans:
Despite the closeness and high stakes associated with this 2024 presidential race, Kamala Harris in a bunker this morning – avoiding interviews and unscripted moments – and Donald Trump is off the trail, too (aside from some pressers that very well-viewed Musk interview on X).
It’s a little unusual.
I obviously get why Kamala is hiding. It’s working for her, and let’s face it… she’s best on paper, unburdened by opportunities to stick her foot in her mouth. I’d expect her campaign to continue to limit unscripted engagements for as long as they can, a strategy that’s little changed from when the Democrat nominee was an octogenarian who could barely stand erect for more than 15 minutes.
A sleepy August campaign schedule, conversely, does NOT appear to be working for Donald Trump. Harris’s single-point lead in the RCP average as of Tuesday morning is not historically where Democrats need to be to win the Electoral College, a point which I think is often disregarded in pundits’ polling commentary; in 2016, for example, Hillary won the national popular vote by nearly three million votes but all of that was attributable to California. Without it? Trump would’ve won by a cool million. Republicans have one three presidential elections this century, and only one of them (2004) with a popular vote victory.
But the polling trend is clearly in her favor at the moment, and the Democrats haven’t even had their convention yet which you can expect the Media to cover as if it’s exclusive live footage of the second coming of Jesus Christ. Team Trump can’t afford to be where they are today in a month, and they absolutely need some sort of compelling counter-programming for Democrats’ convention week. Aggressive social media shitposting won’t be enough.
The GOP nominee is in North Carolina today for a rally. His polling has held up in this must-win state post-Biden’s departure from the ticket, so he’s no doubt hoping to shore up the Sun Belt’s northern extension with a successful event.
Meanwhile, we just learned that President Trump will hold a press conference on Thursday at his Bedminster (New Jersey) country club; he’s had two other campaign events in New Jersey this cycle – a fundraiser in Monmouth County last month and his massive Wildwood rally back in May.
Stay tuned:
