New Jersey Republicans continued their trend of small registration gains versus Democrats in July 2024, adding a net of over 6,000 new voters more than the majority party and helping close what was once an over one million voter advantage across all 21 counties.
22,548 were added overall. The GOP picked up 7,165 new voters in July; Democrat added considerably less (1,040), and unaffiliateds added 14,604 to their ranks.
There are now 1,598,106 Republicans and 2,521,808 Democrats in the Garden State.
The party of Biden, Harris and Obama still enjoys a gigantic 923,702 voter edge, but that’s down significantly from the end of the first Trump Adminstration when their lead exceeded 1.2 million. That advantage had sunk to 954,615 at the beginning of 2024 as economic woes, foreign disasters, and domestic strife hobbled by the Biden Administration.
Whether these gains make a dent in the national picture remains to be seen. A Republican presidential nominee hasn’t carried New Jersey this century (the last win was in 1988), but a few recent polls have shown Trump and U.S. Senate nominee Curtis Bashaw, respectively, in single-digit contests with their Democrat opponents. Jack Ciattarelli ran surprisingly well against Phil Murphy in 2021 (losing by a low-single digit margin despite polls predicting a comfortable Murphy victory), though gubernatorial cycles and presidential ones often produce different electorates which make direct comparisons difficult.
When Chris Christie defeated Jon Corzine in 2009 with a plurality of the vote, the Democrat statewide advantage was a few hundred thousands voters smaller than it is today.
Meanwhile, in the state’s sole competitive 2024 House district (as of now), NJ-07 Republicans boast a 212,434 to 193,286 registration edge over Democrats. Congressman Tom Kean Jr., a one-term incumbent, is narrowly favored to hold off a challenge from far-Left Democrat activist Sue Altman.
