The good news for Garden State Republicans?
After getting their asses handed to them in the 2023 cycle, there are very few districts left for Democrats to target for flips. Even the ones which should be competitive on paper (like LD2 and LD25) are longshots because of current environmental trends and weak long Democrat organizations and candidate benches. Republicans, on the other hand, SHOULD have a number of juicy targets on their radar based on what happened in 2024 alone.
Donald Trump outright won three of the six districts on my proposed target list below. Two others were razor tight, and Kamala Harris performed worse in all of them then she did statewide. All of these districts could and, yes, can go Republican in November 2025 with the right candidates, resources, and America First principles on the ballot. There are technically enough seats in play this year for the NJGOP to take a one-seat majority in the lower chamber.* The perrennial question is whether state and local GOP leaders will make the right moves or fall back into their familiar, comfortable losing ways.
As we sort all of that out, go ahead and check out my list and bookmark this post for future reference:
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3rd Legislative District (LD3)
Election 2024: Trump +7.4 (52.7% – 45.3%)
Current representation: All Democrat (State Senator John Burzichelli (Paulsboro) and Assemblymemebrs David Bailey (Woodstown) and Heather Simmons (Glassboro).
Municipalities/Counties:
Cumberland: Deerfield Township, Greenwich Township, Hopewell Township, Shiloh Borough, Stow Creek Township, Upper Deerfield Township
Gloucester County: Clayton, East Greenwich Township, Elk Township, Glassboro, Greenwich Township, Harrison Township, Logan Township, Mantua Township, National Park, Paulsboro, Pitman, South Harrison Township, Swedesboro, Wenonah Borough, West Deptford Township, Westville, and Woolwich Township
Salem: Alloway Township, Carneys Point Township, Elmer, Elsinboro Township, Lower Alloways Creek Township, Mannington Township, Oldmans Township, Penns Grove, Pennsville Township, Pilesgrove Township, Pittsgrove Township, Quinton Township, Salem, Upper Pittsgrove Township, Woodstown
Overview: This one is a no- brainer. Ed “The Trucker” Durr upset then-President Steve Sweeney here in 2021, sending shockwaves through New Jersey politics and signaling South Jersey’s sustained rightward shift. Angry and embarrassed Democrats made Durr a one-termer in 2023 (and defeated his running mates, too), for a variety of reasons including Durr’s failure to capitalize on his 15 minutes of fame with fundraising, ugly party infighting, and an avalanche of Democrat hard and soft money. But Donald Trump just won a decisive victory in this sprawling, rural, mostly working class district, the largest by far of any district on this list, so this one really should be viewed as the Republicans’ to lose. The right “America First” candidates backed with sufficient resources and support should be able to snatch these Assembly seats back in 2025. We’ll see if they put it together.
4th Legislative District (LD4)
Election 2024: Harris +1.6 (50.0% – 48.4%)
Current representation: All Democrat (State Senor Paul Moriarty (Washington Township) and Assemblymen Dan Hutchinson (Gloucester Township) and Cody Miller (Monroe Township)).
Municipalities/Counties:
Camden: Chesilhurst, Gloucester Township, Waterford, Winslow Township
Gloucester: Franklin Township, Monroe Township, Newfield Borough, Washington Township
Atlantic: Buena, Buena Vista
Overview: Republicans had (very) high hopes of flipping this district in 2023 but – as you can see by the 2024 presidential results – it’s still not as red as neighboring LD3. Democrats also unleashed a flood of “dark money” in this district and even a FAKE or “shadow” MAGA candidate designed to undermine the Republican ticket. Still, LD4 isn’t blue anymore; Democrat Fred Madden decided not to seek reelection in 2023 because he and his Machine overlords saw the writing on the wall. LD4 is now decidedly purple, and that’s due in no small part to the insurgent Washington Township Republicans who just dethroned the Democrat mayor, taking complete control of the populous municipality for the first time in a long time. There’s a control race in Gloucester County this year, too, the “main event” locally, so there’s more than one reason for Republicans to invest heavily in LD4 ASAP.
11th Legislative District (LD11)
Election 2024: Harris +4.3 (51.1% – 46.8%)
Current representation: All Democrat (Senator Vin Gopal and Assemblywomen Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul).
Municipalities/Counties:
Monmouth: Allenhurst Borough, Asbury Park City, Bradley Beach, Colts Neck Township, Deal Borough, Eatontown Borough, Fair Haven, Freehold Borough, Freehold Township, Interlaken Borough, Loch Arbour Village, Long Branch City, Neptune City Borough, Neptune Township, Ocean Township, Red Bank Borough, Shrewsbury Borough, Shrewsbury Township, Tinton Falls Borough.
Overview: Republicans dropped two Assembly seats here in what was (until 2023) a rare mixed representation district. A big part of the Republican problem: Democrat State Senator Vin Gopal runs strong here and Republicans haven’t been able to tarnish his brand (at least not yet). But Gopal isn’t on the ballot in 2025, and he lost both of his running mates in 2021 when they had to run without his coattails. While certainly not a “red” district by any stretch of the imagination, this rare slightly-Democrat-leaning Jersey Shore outpost is still purple enough post-redistricting to swing right if the variables sufficiently align in Republicans’ favor. They naturally need to help themselves. For example, it would probably be wise for the GOP to consider well-vetted candidates running on America First themes from LD11’s bluer areas (like Asbury Park and the Neptunes) in order to cut into the Democrats’ ballot advantages in those jurisdictions.
19th Legislative District (LD19)
Election 2024: Harris +0.7 (48.9% – 48.2%)
Current representation: All Democrat (State Senator Joe Vitale (Woodbridge Township) and Assemblymen Craig Coughlin (Woodbridge Township) and Yvonne Lopez (Perth Amboy)
Municipalities/Counties:
Middlesex: Carteret, Perth Amboy, Sayreville, South Amboy, Woodbridge Township
Overview: A Republican hasn’t represented LD19 since Arline Friscia changed parties a generation ago (in 2003). The last elected GOP slate came to power in the early ’90s right before James McGreevey became LD19’s state senator. One of its two current incumbent Democrat assemblymen is none other than Craig Coughlin, the Assembly’s speaker whose law firm has made a mint since he grabbed the gavel. But as you can see above, Save Jerseyans, Donald Trump missed flipping this all-Middlesex County legislative district by a HAIR in November. Can the GOP truly pass up an opportunity to capitalize upon what the President-elect started? And take down the sitting speaker in the process? I sure hope not. A major part of a hypothetical path to victory would involve finding a candidate or candidates who can continue the progress already made with working class Hispanic voters, notably in Perth Amboy. Vitale should also be particularly vulnerable as chairman of the Senate Health committee which has made more than a few controversial moves in recent sessions.
36th Legislative District (LD36)
Election 2024: Trump +4.6 (51.1% – 46.5%)
Current representation: All Democrat (Paul Sarlo (Wood-Ridge) and Assemblymen Clinton Calabrese (Cliffside Park) and Gary Schaer (Passaic).
Municipalities/Counties:
Bergen: Carlstadt, Cliffside Park, East Rutherford, Edgewater, Fairview, Lyndhurst, North Arlington, Ridgefield, Rutherford, Wallington, Wood-Ridge
Passaic: City of Passaic
Overview: Much like LD3, this quintessentially Jersey district – home of Giant’s Stadium and the Meadowlands – should be a no-brainer for the GOP. It’s teased at being competitive before but Republicans have frankly never been able to get their collective sh*t together. That was literally true in 2023 when local Republican leaders nominated a candidate with a checkered past including an incident involving the spreading of literal crap on a daycare threshold. The debate over whether LD36 should be a top target – and taken more seriously, especially during the recruitment phase – should now be officially over with Donald Trump’s nearly 5-point win here.
38th Legislative District (LD38)
Election 2024: Trump +0.1 (48.8% – 48.7%)
Current representation: All Democrat (State Senator Joseph Lagana (Paramus) and Assemblymembers Lisa Swain (Fair Lawn) and Chris Tully (Bergenfield)).
Municipalities/Counties:
Bergen: Bergenfield, Fair Lawn, Glen Rock, Hasbrouck Heights, Little Ferry, Lodi, Maywood, Moonachie, New Milford, Oradell, Paramus, River Edge, Rochelle Park, Saddle Brook, South Hackensack, Teterboro.
Overview: Just like South Jersey’s LD4 has drifted rightward as Washington Township has reddened, North Jersey’s LD38 is now a straight-up toss up district with Donald Trump winning by 1/10th of point last month thanks to retail powerhouse Paramus’s Republican revolution. Republicans haven’t exactly ignored this district in recent cycles (contrast: LD36), but they haven’t invested much scratch, either, focusing instead on places like LD4 and LD11 which certainly deserve love and attention, too, but frankly aren’t as favorable ground for a flip as this district. This was a Biden +14 district just four years ago! LD38 along with LD3 and LD36 have no business remaining in the D’s legislative column in light of how they just voted for president. No excuse!
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*Note: I did not include LD8 on this list where, by the way, Trump fell short by 1.1-points; housed in suburban Burlington County, it’s the state’s last mixed representation district with a GOP State Senator (Latham Tiver) and one Assemblyman from each party. Brendan Umba of Medford (R) very narrowly lost reelection in 2023 and is the favorite for the nomination to retake his seat for 2025. For all of the forgoing reasons, it’s not only a “Democrat” district but didn’t think I needed to explain to anyone why/how it’s still competitive. We’ll take a closer look at it all the same in a future post.
