Polls are an imperfect science (at best), Save Jerseyans, but the handful of those produced to date suggest that the Republican primary has a clear frontrunner with a little over three months left to go before Primary Day.
A poll conducted by Kellyanne Conway’s KAConsulting LLC for the pro-Ciattarelli super pac “Kitchen Table Conservatives” found Jack Ciattarelli (42%), the 2021 nominee, nursing a double-digit lead over his closest competitor, former radio host Bill Spadea (13%).
State Senator Jon Bramnick (4%), ex-legislator Ed “The Trucker” Durr (2%), and former Mayor Mario Kranjac (2%) are also far back in the field, while about one-third of the primary electorate (35%) is undecided.
The results do come from an anti-Spadea organization, but they also aren’t inconsistent with an Emerson/Hill poll from January that also found Ciattarelli (26%) fairly comfortably ahead of Spadea (12%) and Bramnick (4%).
Spadea’s biggest hurdle appears to be a familiar one for statewide candidates in New Jersey: name recognition. Despite hosting his popular NJ 101.5 Central Jersey morning show for several years, 62% of the Garden State Republicans voters polled reported either having no solid opinion regarding Spadea or no opinion at all. Further complicating the Spadea team’s path forward is Ciattarelli’s vastly superior fundraising position to date (Spadea is currently qualified for $2.9 million including matching funds while Ciattarelli is already maxed out at $8.7 million).
On the issue front, 55% say they’re primarily focused on economic issues while another 28% say security issues – including crime and immigration – top their list. 75% of Republican primary voters expressed a preference for an ‘America First’ candidate, and 65% say a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to support the endorsed candidate. Trump is viewed favorably by 90% of GOP voters and only 9% share a dim opinion of the 47th president.
Conway’s outfit conducted telephone calls with 600 Republican voters between February 5th and 7th; the margin of error is +/- 4.0%.
