The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is out with its new list of 2026 midterm targets, and Nellie Pou’s (NJ-09) is one of the 26 Democrat-held districts that made the cut.
“House Republicans are in the majority and on offense,” said NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson. “Meanwhile, vulnerable House Democrats have been hard at work demonstrating they are painfully out of touch with hardworking Americans. Republicans are taking the fight straight to these House Democrats in their districts, and we will unseat them next fall.”
The Ninth Congressional District is brand new to the swing district category. Donald Trump carried the relatively diverse district – home to Paterson and other traditionally blue outposts – by a single point in 2025. By contrast, Joe Biden posted a landslide 59% to 40% victory in NJ-09 back in 2020. Democrat Nellie Pou won narrowly (50.8% to 45.9%) against repeat GOP nominee Bill Prempeh this year, a gap of only 12,575 votes (130,514 to 117,939). Pou’s close call came about without any significant outside help from the party at either the state or national level.
Donald Trump has undeniably changed the map for House Republicans. Only 12 Democrats won Trump districts in 2018 and 25 Republicans were elected in Clinton districts. This cycle, there are only 13 Democrats (including Pou) in districts carried by the president and just three Republicans in Harris-captured districts. The overall trendline is promising for the GOP: 419 congressional districts are voting more “red” today since 2020, and 65 of those districts have shifted to the right by double digits.
A recent Democrat poll discovered that a majority of battleground district voters think Democrats are “more focused on helping other people than people like me.” Meanwhile, a new NBC poll found that Democrats’ approval rating is now at an all-time low.
The movement observed in NJ-09, a seat which only recently delivered doubled-digit wins for the late Democrat Rep. Bill Pascrell of 11-points in 2022, is attributable in large part to declining Democrat strength in the Hispanic community; NJ-09 is more Hispanic (41.6%) than White (38.3%).
The NRCC is the primary campaign arm of the House Republican caucus, and its inclusion of a district on a target list is generally considered a leading indicator of competitiveness in the early stages of a cycle. Prempeh has already declared his intention to run again in 2026 but the district’s newly-acknowledged competitiveness is likely to attract fresh attention from other possible Pou challengers.
