Four years ago this week, Save Jerseyans, the Republic Governors Association (RGA) launched a six-figure ad buy attacking incumbent Phil Murphy for sunning his snaggle-toothed face at an Italian villa.
Thus far in 2025? Despite 2025 nominee Jack Ciattarelli finishing tantalizingly close in 2021?
Nothing is in the pipeline as of this writing:
Yesterday, Abigail Spanberger (D) placed $10m in fall TV reservations through election day. Republicans have yet to reserve any fall airtime for #VAGov or #NJGov. @CookPolitical rates each race as Lean D.
Fall reservations (9/1-11/4):
NJ Gov: $17.5m $0
VA Gov: $10.2m $0— AdImpact Politics (@AdImpact_Pol) August 20, 2025
By the way, that Democrat number for New Jersey is likely low considering television advertising reservations placed by the Democrat Governors Association (DGA) reportedly total $20 million. Republicans aren’t exactly having trouble raising money in almost every other context and category. The NRCC is still slightly ahead of the DCCC in total money raised since the midterm cycle technically began on January 1st, and the RNC is easily leaving the DNC in its dust.
Why isn’t any of that cash flowing to New Jersey or Virginia for 2025, at least to date?
Are we heading towards a repeat of 2021 when the GOP blew a major opportunity in the Garden State?
I’m sorry to report it’s possible. The RGA has exhibited alarmin g signs of apathy towards this year’s contest going back to at least the primary phase when they passed on a chance to message at the final Republican primary debate. RGA Chair Brian Kemp of Georgia did drop by for a North Jersey swing with Ciattarelli in early August and helped raise about $1 million for the Republican campaign but, respectfully, one million is a drop in the bucket of the independent expenditure which is likely to be spent in the coming months to decide who will succeed Phil Murphy.
One possible explanation that’s been offered to me by people in the know: fear of 2026. Panicans are terrified of the prospect of a rout next fall and may be tempted to hoard cash for 2026 gubernatorial defenses rather than take a chance on races in New Jersey and Virginia which (to the ignorant untrained eye) feel like gambles with high buy-ins.
Of course, that reasoning is assbackwards assuming it’s indeed taking hold.
History is our guide. Victories in New Jersey and/or Virginia would almost certainly supercharge Republican chances in 2026, much like how Christine Todd Whitman’s 1993 victory and Chris Christie’s 2009 win helped fuel momentum for massive GOP congressional successes in the immediately following midterm cycles. Jack Ciattarelli only lost by about 80,000+ votes last time, and Republicans have closed their statewide voter registration gap by nearly three-times that amount over the past four years. This race is winnable.
Big losses this fall, however, would just as certainly feed the Democrat/legacy media joint narrative that another “Trump correction” akin to 2018 is coming.
We’ll see what the coming weeks bring. It’s not too late for national Republicans to get in the game, but the hour is undeniably growing late and the stakes could not be higher… for the New Jersey GOP as well as the president’s agenda.
