By Matt Rooney
The New Jersey gubernatorial race is moving into toss-up territory, Save Jerseyans, according to a survey from the Republican campaign’s veteran pollster.
A poll conducted by National Research Inc. reports a narrow two point race between Jack Ciattarelli and the Democrat nominee, Mikie Sherrill in a head-to-head contest. The Democrat leads 47% to 45% among 600 likely voters but with an associated margin of error of +/- 4%. In other words… it’s anyone’s game at this point, Save Jerseyans.
The timing of these results is significant for more than one reason. National Research’s polling suggests no movement in Sherrill’s favor since the DGA began running ads in the Garden State on September 2nd. Conducted between September 8th and 10th, Sherrill’s +2 lead is actually down from +3 in both July and June despite a week of near-total airwave dominance in September baked into the survey and $2+ million thrown behind the widely-discussed slanderous “sales tax hike” attack line. National Research principal Adam Geller is best known for being among the first to detect movement in President Trump’s direction in the Upper Midwest back in 2016.
Some other highlights from Geller’s survey?
- The right track-wrong track number for New Jersey is the most negative it’s been in awhile (57% wrong track to 30% right track) and, importantly for our instant analysis, far worse than it was during a similar period back in June 2021 (47% right track vs. 43% wrong track) when National Research polled it.
- Ciattarelli’s lead among unaffiliated voters is at 12-points (50% to 38%).
- Ciattarelli narrowly wins working/middle class voters: 46% to 44%.
TIPP’s late August poll found a statistically tied race among registered voters.
Another native New Jersey data heavyweight – Tim Saler, POTUS’s data guru – recently pegged the race as a toss-up based on two separate models of the elecotate:
2021 Gov Model
Ciattarelli +1 (4-point movement since ’21 race)
2024 Prez Model
Sherrill +3 (3-point movement from ’24 race)
Here’s the National Research memo for your viewing pleasure:
Ciattarelli-for-Governor-Polling-Memo-9-8-to-9-10-1
