The inaugural Save Jersey Poll is out, Save Jerseyans, and it shows Mikie Sherrill leading Jack Ciattarelli by a statistically insignificant 2-point margin in the race for New Jersey governor.
What did we find? Conducted by global strategy firm Valcour, our poll discovered the race for governor between Sherrill (47%) and Ciattarelli (45%) as tight as it can get and, at the moment, the Democrat nominee finds herself in both a precarious polling position and in need of a change in the general trajectory to stave off an increasingly possible upset.
Another 7% remain unsure/undecided. Ciattarelli enjoys an edge with registered unaffiliated voters (47% to 41%) and pulls a stronger percentage of registered Republicans (90%) than Sherrill does with her fellow Democrats (83%). Democrats, however, continue to benefit from an 850,000 statewide voter registration advantage, but Ciattarelli is also keeping things competitive by cutting into the Democrats’ urban core by peeling off nearly one-third (30%) of urban voters.
“The race to succeed Phil Murphy is a true ‘toss up’ contest at the moment,” explained Matt Mowers, president of Valcour. “While the Democrats’ strong voter registration edge affords Congresswoman Sherrill a built-in advantage, Republicans are winning the argument at the moment and can win the governorship by hammering home their core messaging and generating a robust turnout.”
We’re not exaggerating when we say Ciattarelli is running from a position of strength on the issues. Here are just some of the key findings from the survey:
– Only 25% of those polled believe New Jersey is currently on the “right track.”
– 29% report that Charlie Kirk’s assassination has made them “more Republican” as opposed to 15% who say “more Democratic.”
– Ciattarelli is pulling a historically strong 21% of the black vote for a Republican, a finding which is likely driving his 30% (see above) position with in urban New Jersey.
– The rivals are tied among union voters: 45% each.
– Ciattarelli is viewed as the candidate who’d do a better job job on property taxes (42% to 35%), utility rates (42% to 35%), crime (46% to 33%), and shaking up Trenton (44% to 28%) among other imporant topics.
– 49% say it’s more important to “break up” the Trenton establishment than work with it (28%), a potential problem for Democrats who’ve dominated the legislature for 25 years and every branch of state government since January 2018.
Click here to view the full top lines.
The bottom line? The Ciattarelli campaign has work to do but also has greater room for growth.
“Jack Ciattarelli finds himself in a good place with over a month left to go and national Republican spending finally coming online,” added Matt Rooney, founder and editor of SaveJersey.com. “He’s also where voters are on every major issue this campaign season. But let’s be clear: Republicans can win this, but they can also still lose it. If nothing else, this poll should give voters confidence that their vote does matter this year and Republican leaders the courage to lean into their clear issue advantage with New Jerseyans who are clearly hungering for real change.”
The Valcour survey was conducted between September 23rd and 24th with a sample size of 1,274 likely New Jersey voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.8%. The sample was 45% Democrat and 34% Republican (D+11).
Notably, respondents were surveyed entirely before Mikie Sherrill’s Naval Academy cheating scandal made national news. Jack Ciattarelli’s unfavorable number (47%) roughly mirrors Sherrill’s (48%) in Valcour’s survey. It remains to be seen whether revelations concerning Sherrill’s role in the largest breach of student academic misconduct in Annapolis history – and the Congresswoman’s refusal to disclose her disciplinary records – drives her negatives higher. Even a relatively modest uptick in her unfavorable rating could shift the race to a discernible Ciattarelli advantage.
“Remember: polling is a snapshot in time. This race was a genuine ‘toss up’ as of the end of September. We’ll see what the next few weeks bring, but I’d rather be him than her at the moment with several weeks left on the campaign clock and early voting ramping up,” continued Rooney. “What’s truly fascinating is Jack’s strength with certain elements of the Trump 2024 coalition. Up until recently, the popular wisdom has been that only Donald Trump can appeal to black men, Hispanic voters, young Americans and the working class. New Jersey Republicans could be poised to demonstrate that the Trump realignment can, in fact, translate to other candidates. That outcome would truly be nightmare fuel for Democrats in the Garden State and beyond.”
Here are the full top lines for your viewing pleasure:
Toplines-NJ-SW-Sept-2025
