Is the New Jersey gubernatorial race a dead heat as the fall sprint begins?
Possibly… if TIPP is correct!
The generally well-regarded pollster dropped its first 2025 results on Wednesday night, and TIPP reported finding Democrat Mikie Sherrill leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a statistically insignificant 1-point among registered voters (37% to 36%). A full 27% reported being undecided as the fall ad blitz gets underway.
Sherrill’s lead grew to 4% (among “regular” voters) and 7% (among “likely” voters), but with a margin of error of 3%, it’s accurate to say that TIPP’s numbers reflect a dead heat.
Click here to view the tables.
Ciattarelli ultimately fell just 3-point short of victory in 2021 against then-incumbent Phil Murphy, but public polling back then projected a less-than-tight contest.
Also of interest: while Trump’s job approval is allegedly underwater, no less than 56% of registered voters SUPPORT President Trump’s deportation policy and the reaction to the “Big Beautiful Bill” is mixed (with 39% saying it made their finances “worse” but 37% saying they’ve improved or remained the same).
