By Matt Rooney
Trenton’s press corps woke up Tuesday morning ready to celebrate Mikie Sherrill, Save Jerseyans.
A fresh Fairleigh Dickinson University poll shows the first-term governor sitting pretty at 58% approval—a number that, on its face, looks like political rocket fuel in a blue-leaning state like New Jersey.
And just like clockwork, that’s the number you’re seeing blasted across headlines and X feeds.
But here’s the number you’re not hearing about nearly as much:
34% disapproval.
That’s not just high—it’s historically high for this early in a New Jersey gubernatorial tenure.
Let’s put that in perspective.
At roughly the same point in their governorships:
- Phil Murphy: 35% approve / 21% disapprove
- Chris Christie: 48% approve / 31% disapprove
- Jon Corzine: 47% approve / 16% disapprove
Only Christie even comes close on the disapproval side—and he built his brand on confrontation.
So what’s going on here?
Simple: this isn’t a honeymoon. It’s a sorting.
Sherrill isn’t just popular—she’s already polarizing.
That 58% approval suggests she’s consolidated support quickly among Democrats and friendly independents. But the 34% disapproval tells a different story: a large, entrenched bloc of voters has already made up its mind—and they’re not buying what she’s selling.
That’s unusual this early. Most governors spend their first stretch in office introducing themselves to voters, with plenty of “wait and see” attitudes padding the middle.
Not here.
There’s less middle.
Fewer persuadables.
More intensity.
And intensity cuts both ways.
For Sherrill, this creates a political paradox. She may be sitting on a strong foundation today, but her ceiling could be forming at the exact same time as her base. Once a third of the electorate is locked into disapproval, growth becomes harder—and missteps become more dangerous.
In a state like New Jersey, that might not matter—until it does.
Because if the environment shifts, or if economic or tax issues sharpen, that already-energized opposition doesn’t need to be built from scratch.
It’s already there.
The media will keep talking about 58%.
But the smarter question—the one that will define the next phase of Sherrill’s governorship—is this:
Why are so many voters already saying “no”?
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MATT ROONEY is SaveJersey.com’s founder and editor-in-chief, a practicing New Jersey attorney, and the host of ‘The Matt Rooney Show’ on 1210 WPHT every Saturday evening from 7-9 PM EST
