The Biden-led Democrats had a brutal summer and it’s not over yet even as the fall season gets underway. A leading betting aggregator reports that Phil Murphy is no exception to the rule.
According to US-Bookies.com, Murphy’s odds of winning reelection stood at 1/10 (or a 90.9% “implied probability”) in June 2021, but they’ve dropped to 2/9 (81.8%) as of September.
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“Murphy still holds a significant lead, and is the odds-on favorite to be the first Democratic governor of New Jersey to be re-elected in over 40 years, but the odds are showing a downward trend,” said a US-Bookies spokesperson. “[Jack] Ciattarelli is starting to build more momentum according to the betting markets, but he still has a long way to go to overtake Murphy.”
The GOP nominee’s odds, while still long, have correspondingly improved from 13/2 (a 13.3% implied probability) in June to 4/1 (20%) today.
The only recent public poll put Ciattarelli behind Murphy from anywhere between 9 to 14 points, but two reputable Republicans polls found a much closer, low single digit Murphy lead.
The govenrnor and his challenger will clash in the first of two scheduled gubernatorial debates on Tuesday night at 7:00 p.m. on ABC.
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