New Jersey is a tough state in which to “get known,” Save Jerseyans. Without a unified media market, statewide candidates need to play and spend in two of the nation’s most expensive (New York and Philadelphia). This challenge underscores the problem facing the candidates not named “Jack Ciattarelli” in the 2025 Republican gubernatorial primary field.
A new FDU poll dropped Thursday morning finds the 2021 nominee (Ciattarelli) with a dramatic name recognition lead among Republican voters. According to the polling report, “[s]eventy-eight percent of Republicans in the state say that they recognize the former assemblyman, and 39 percent say that they have a favorable view of him” while “[t]he other candidates polled – talk show host Bill Spadea, former State Senator Ed ‘The Trucker’ Durr and former assemblyman John Bramnick – all have similar levels of favorability, at around 20 percent of Republicans, with lower levels of name recognition.”
Spadea, who until recently was a radio host on NJ 101.5, has 54% name recognition but it hasn’t yet boosted his favorability. 22% don’t know who he is with approximately three months left to go before Primary Day and considerably less time before mail-in ballots begin arriving in mailboxes.
“The fact that Ciatterelli has run before means that voters know who he is, but he also has much higher unfavorables than the other Republicans in the race,” said Dan Cassino, executive director of the FDU Poll. “He’s currently in the strongest position, but these numbers show how tenuous that advantage is. The large number of Republicans who don’t have an opinion about Spadea means that he has room to grow his support. But to do that, he’ll have to break through in media coverage, something that’s proving hard for everyone in the race.”
Click here to view the crosstabs.
The FDU poll was conducted between February 23 and 28, 2025 and the subsample of Republicans totaled 430 registered voters.
My two cents?
I’m beginning to wonder how competitive this race really is. We’ve had a few polls at this point (including at least one which I can’t share that wasn’t affiliated with any of the camps), and Ciattarelli is ahead by double digits in all of them. Bramnick and Durr are rapidly approaching the point where they need to decide if they have a path forward. For Spadea, running up the score in the core NJ 101.5 listening area (Central Jersey) may not be enough unless he can begin boosting his name recognition elsewhere, a challenge since Ciattarelli (and Bramnick) both have considerably more cash on hand. Time is of the essence.
