Jack Ciattarelli is now narrowly ahead within the margin of error, Save Jerseyans, according to the latest survey from campaign pollster Adam Geller of National Research.
The survey – conducted between September 16th and 18th of 600 likely voters – shows Ciattarelli leading the Democrat nominee, Mikie Sherrill, by a single point (46% to 45%). The margin of error is +/- 4%, meaning the race for governor is now a statistical dead heat but with Ciattarelli evidencing real momentum; the last National Research survey found Sherrill up by 2-points.
This is the first survey – either public or internal – to show the GOP nominee ahead.
Notably, this is the second released New Jersey gubernatorial poll after the assassination of Charlie Kirk which has broadly been viewed as a potential motivating factor for as-of-yet disengaged Trump coalition voters. Moreover, this ad likely reflects the RGA’s recent entry into the contest with a volley of cutting new ads highlighting some of Sherrill’s wackier comments to date on electric bills.
Public polling to date has generally shown anything from a mid to high single digit Sherrill advantage. However, the only other post-Kirk assassination poll (from Quinnipiac) reported Ciattarelli with an 11-point enthusiasm advantage over Sherrill among those “very” enthused by their chosen candidate.
Ciattarelli and Sherrill will debate for the first time tonight, September 21st, at Rider University.
