We’re in the (very) early stages of Election 2025’s early voting period, Save Jerseyans, but the first weekend of returns suggests a modest but significant increase in enthusiasm among Republican voters.
Here’s where we’re at among ballots RETURNED as of Tuesday, September 23rd:
N.J. mail-in votes (2024 final)
Democrat: 62.71%
Republican: 19.10%
Other: 18.19%
N.J. mail-in votes (2025, as of 9/23)
Democrat: 61.74%
Republican: 25.44%
Other: 12.81%
2024 margin
D+43.61
2025 margin
D+36.30
We’re only analyzing several thousand ballots at the moment. Of course, we don’t know for sure how any of these folks voted notwithstanding their official party affiliation. But there are plenty of anecdotal signs of growing Republican enthusiasm as of late, and more Republicans banking their votes early would be a good thing.
Jack Ciattarelli can be expected to win the Election Day vote over Mikie Sherrill. The key will be to go into November 4th with as small of a deficit as possible.
