By Matt Rooney
Tom Kean Jr. is fighting for his political life, Save Jerseyans. That’s hardly a revelation! President Trump only carried the district by 2-points in 2024, so it was basically a foregone conclusion that this one would be a back alley street fight. And it is.
The early-voting numbers are also undeniably concerning for the GOP. Pretending otherwise doesn’t help anyone. But neither does confusing a Democratic advantage among ballots already cast with a fully-baked election.
Kean still has plausible paths to victory. Each path requires Republicans to show up in force on Tuesday.
As of October 30th, there were 112,147 advance ballots cast in NJ-07. Registered Democrats accounted for approximately 51.8%, Republicans 27.9%, and unaffiliated or other voters sat at 20.4%. Those percentages translate into roughly 58,000 Democratic ballots and 31,300 Republican ballots—a Democratic registration advantage approaching 27,000.
At the corresponding point in 2025, Democrats’ advantage was approximately 10,300:
| Advance voting by registration | Same stage in 2025 | October 30, 2026 snapshot |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | Approximately 47,900 | Approximately 58,000 |
| Republicans | Approximately 37,600 | Approximately 31,300 |
| Democratic advantage | Approximately 10,300 | Approximately 26,800 |
That deterioration deserves attention. Democrats have increased their advance participation while Republicans have fallen behind their previous pace.
But what does the much-discussed “14 points bluer” claim actually mean?
It means the Democratic-versus-Republican registration margin among early voters has widened by approximately 14 percentage points. It does not mean Rebecca Bennett has gained 14 points of support. It does not establish her actual lead. And it certainly does not tell us how everyone who hasn’t voted will behave.
These are registrations, not candidate selections.
There’s also a comparison problem: 2025 was a gubernatorial election. Different campaigns and different voting habits can produce different early electorates.
Are Republicans voting later? Or are they voting less?
That is the question. No snapshot at this point can answer it.
We can, however, calculate what a Kean comeback might require.
Let’s assume, for argument’s sake, that around 350,000 total votes are ultimately cast in the affluent, Central Jersey district. Accept that estimate for purposes of illustration, and approximately 238,000 votes (roughly two-thirds of our projected electorate) are still outstanding.
For a simple model, assume each candidate wins 95% of their own party’s voters and 5% of the opposing party’s voters. Assume unaffiliated and other voters comprise 25% of the remaining electorate, with negligible third-party voting.
Finally, assume Kean performs equally well among unaffiliated voters who voted early and those voting later.
Under those assumptions, these combinations bring Kean approximately to a tie:
| Kean’s support among unaffiliated/other voters | Republican share of remaining voters needed | Democratic share | Unaffiliated/other share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 47.0% | 28.0% | 25% |
| 45% | 45.1% | 29.9% | 25% |
| 50% | 43.1% | 31.9% | 25% |
| 55% | 41.2% | 33.8% | 25% |
| 60% | 39.3% | 35.7% | 25% |
| 65% | 37.4% | 37.6% | 25% |
The takeaway is straightforward: the better Kean performs with unaffiliated voters, the smaller the Republican turnout advantage he needs.
If he wins unaffiliated voters 60–40 (which is unlikely in this environment), a remaining electorate that is approximately 39.3% Republican and 35.7% Democratic gets him to a tie.
Push that remaining turnout to 41% Republican, 34% Democratic and 25% unaffiliated, and Kean finishes at approximately 51% overall—a two-point victory.
He has another route with less impressive unaffiliated support. A 55–45 unaffiliated win, combined with remaining turnout of 43% Republican, 32% Democratic and 25% unaffiliated, produces approximately 51.1% overall.
Neither scenario requires Kean to win every persuadable voter. Both require Republicans to deliver a strong finish.
And yes: Kean could even lose unaffiliated voters and still win the election.
Suppose Bennett wins that group 55–45. If the remaining electorate is 46% Republican, 29% Democratic and 25% unaffiliated, Kean still finishes at approximately 50.6%.
That last path is a more demanding turnout scenario. It demonstrates why “he must win independents” is too simplistic. The size of each voting group matters alongside the candidates’ support within it.
There are limits to this exercise. The 350,000 turnout figure is an educated estimate. Party loyalty may differ from the assumed 95%. Unaffiliated voters casting ballots Tuesday may behave differently from those who voted early.
The arithmetic establishes possible routes. It does not establish that the necessary voters will show up.
Kean is in his toughest congressional reelection fight, Save Jerseyans. NJ-7 Republicans should treat it with the urgency that deserves.
But urgency and surrender are very different responses.
The early-vote gap is real. So are the paths to overcoming it. If Republicans storm the polls Tuesday, Kean has a credible chance to finish this fight standing.
