You have to be careful not to equate crowd size with actual support, Save Jerseyans. If you could, Ron Paul would be well on his way to being elected president of the universe.
Size does matter if you’re trying to gauge enthusiam. We saw this illustrated in the final weeks of our 2009 NJGOP Primary when Chris Christie’s crowds continued to grow while Steve Lonegan’s gatherings shrank.
At the moment, Mitt Romney appears to be heading in the direction. The newly-constituted Romney-Ryan ticket addressed 11k+ supporters in North Carolina over the weekend. But most folks felt North Carolina was going red again this fall, right? The real test came today in Florida where Romney (campaigning alone, mind you) had to turn away hundreds of rally attendees because the screeners couldn’t keep up with the crush. So much for the “Ryan’s budget sinks Mitt in Florida” narrative, huh? Again, none of this directly correlates to polling success.
It SHOULD, however, lead pollsters to question their samples which are crafted based on turnout expectations. Or at least you’d think?
I’ve frequently criticized this year’s public surveys for predicting better-than-2008 Democrat turnout when even the fiercest liberal partisans acknowledge that that is the stuff of pure fantasy. In 2008, one of the worst cycles for Republicans in modern history, Democrats were a larger chunk of the actual electorate by roughly 8-points: 39% (DEM) to 32% (GOP). That’s why I’m amazed to see 2012 public polling with 9, 10, or ever 11-point Democrat voting gaps!
The 11-point gap referenced above was found in a late July 2012 NBC/WSJ poll whose designers included 11% more Democrats than Republicans but nevertheless yielded only a 6-point lead for the President.
Now consider today’s USA Today/Gallup poll reporting a massive 13-point “engagement” gap favor of Republicans; if that trend holds through the conventions, the author posits, Republican turnout could eclipse Democrat turnout in November. The best we’ve done in recent cycles is a draw – 37% each – in 2004.
So you tell me, Save Jerseyans:
At what point do some of these pollsters stop trying to make news and start trying to honestly ascertain what’s actually happening on the ground?
November 7th