Since it has been a big topic both here on Save Jersey and now in the mainstream media, I will lead with the sample. For its latest poll, Monmouth University used 715 registered voters and 613 likely voters.
For the registered voter sample, the breakdown was 35 percent Democrat, 41 percent Independent, and 24 percent Republican. In the likely voter model, the Democrats actually rise to 36 percent, the Independents fall to 38 percent, and the Republicans rise to 26 percent.
If this were a national poll I would cry afoul this methodology. There is no way the national turnout model will see a 10 point Democrat advantage, it is simply not going to happen. In New Jersey, that type of spread is actually possible, but I would still say unlikely.
President Obama remains above the coveted 50 percent mark for an incumbent politician. Among likely voters Obama enjoys a 52 percent level of support, compared to Mitt Romney’s seemingly anemic 37 percent. Interestingly enough, Romney is doing better in New Jersey than in his own state of Massachusetts.
Something even more interesting is the US Senate race. While Romney is doing better in NJ than MA, Joe Kyrillos is doing worse than Scott Brown (who admittedly enjoyed the advantages that come with incumbency).
Kyrillos earns 34 percent support among likely voters, compared to 49 percent for Bob Menendez. Menendez has yet to crack 50 percent in the polls. This is an insignificant change from the last poll in July.
One shining stat in the poll for Kyrillos is that his favorabilities have increased since the summer while those who do not recognize his name have decreased. This means that his media campaign and commercials that introduce him to voters are working to some extent. Ads that attack Menendez in the next few weeks would probably be a good idea, so long as they offer contrast and continue to define who Joe Kyrillos is.