New Rutgers Poll Claims Obama Up 17-Points Over Romney in New Jersey

A new Rutgers Poll out this morning predicts a 56% to 39% victory for President Barack Obama over Governor Mitt Romney in the Garden State. Obama carried NJ by a similar 57% to 41% margin in ’08 over John McCain.

David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll, believes “[t]his poll reflects recent national trends” in the presidential race:

Romney’s missteps on Libya and his ’47 percent’ comments may have had effects, though he was already well behind here. We’ve also seen a pickup in voters who say they are Democrats, which is reflected in the poll’s partisan makeup. More people calling themselves Democrats means higher Obama numbers.”

You can check out the full release here, Save Jerseyans. Frankly, I don’t think Professor Redlawsk is 100% right on this one.

First, most new polls are showing a tightening of the race right now. An expanding Obama margin isn’t the national trend. Not at all.

Second, New Jersey Party ID was 44% D, 28% R and 28% U in 2008 according to exit polling data; that’s not too off considering the RU sample assumes a turnout model with 40% D, 26% R and 34% U. I won’t nitpick. The problem? Mitt isn’t playing here at all, a reality which has real ramifications on the final margin. Few ads at all, and far fewer ads than 2008 in South Jersey (aimed at the Philly media market). At least McCain initially set up a field office. Governor Romney hasn’t been here since August for a fundraiser.

Without either campaign playing here, it’s only natural for the Romney/Obama gap to grow as partisans tune in and solidify around their respective party’s candidate; meanwhile, soft NJ Romney supporters will be less enthused and less likely to penetrate pollster’s screens as a direct result.

 

Matt Rooney
About Matt Rooney 8403 Articles
MATT ROONEY is SaveJersey.com's founder and editor-in-chief, a practicing New Jersey attorney, and the host of 'The Matt Rooney Show' on 1210 WPHT every Sunday evening from 7-10PM EST.

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