When an early September poll from Emerson College found Donald Trump trailing Hillary Clinton by only 4-points — 47% to 43% — in the Garden State, Save Jerseyans, skepticism was justified.
Every previous poll had him down double-digits here; Mitt Romney and John McCain lost by similarly huge margins, and a Republican nominee hasn’t carried the state since George H. W. Bush pulled it off in 1988.
One month later, New Jersey-based Trump backers have new reason for optimism.
Stockton University’s survey of 638 likely New Jersey voters discovered Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by only 46% to 40%.
Early signs of an upset? Not quite. But that margin could put Trump on pace to perform as well as George W. Bush who, back in 2004, lost New Jersey to John Kerry by less than 7-points, 52.92% to 46.24%.
Roughly half of the survey was conducted prior to last week’s first televised presidential debate.
“New Jersey is a blue state, so it’s not surprising Clinton is ahead,” explained Sharon Schulman, executive director of the Hughes Center. “But there are still 14 percent who are undecided or not choosing either Clinton or Trump at this point.”
New Jersey men narrowly go for Clinton over Trump, 41% to 40% but Clinton leads Trump by a 14-point margin, 48% to 34%. Among white voters, the Republican leads Clinton 45% to 38% while black voters 83% to 8%) and Hispanics (53% to 33%) break heavily for the Democrat nominee.
Click here to check out the full poll report.