Monmouth Poll: Incumbent Lance (R) trails his challenger Malinowski (D)

By Matt Rooney
Tom Malinowski

Democrat challenger Tom Malinowski is leading incumbent Leonard Lance by 8-points, 47% to 39%, in a new poll from Monmouth University.

That model includes ALL voters: new registrants + folks who’ve voted at least once since 2010.

I’m respectfully a little skeptical of that model for a host of obvious reasons. Monmouth’s “standard” turnout model showed a closer race – Malinowski at 46% to Lance at 43% – while a so-called Democrat “surge” model found Malinowski up 47% to 41%, so it’s a fairly close race either way.

Lance has the unenviable job this year of defending the only New Jersey congressional district which is (1) currently represented by a Republican but which (2) voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

“The fundamentals of this swing district favor Malinowski, but he has not been able to break clear of Lance’s deep roots here,” said Murray, the director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Click here for the full poll report.