A few public polls came out of the field this week, Save Jerseyans, showing Jack Ciattarelli trailing Phil Murphy by anywhere from 9 to 11 points. Do I buy that he’s down that much? No. I don’t.
Fairleigh Dickinson’s and Monmouth’s respective final 2009 polls both predicted 2-point Corzine victories, Save Jerseyans. Christie ultimately won by 4.3-points. For those of you who learned math from the NJEA, that’s a 6.3-point polling miss. Don’t be surprised if history repeats itself on Tuesday.
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Take a look at Friday’s FDU poll which is the most recent to drop. The pollster in charge says his results (showing the GOP nominee behind by 9 points) suggest momentum for the Democrat incumbent. His explanation for concluding that Murphy has momentum is… bizarre:
“The results show that controlling for other factors, independent voters have become more likely to swing towards Murphy over the past week. While independent voters constitute a smaller portion of the electorate than partisans, they are considered key to both candidates’ chances of victory. On Monday, controlling for other factors, only 24 percent of independent voters said that they would support Murphy in the election, with the remainder going to Ciattarelli, or remaining undecided. By Thursday night, 54 percent of independents said that they would support Murphy, controlling for other demographic factors.
“It’s not impossible to close a nine-point gap in the polls,” said Cassino. “But partisans are remaining stable, the independents are moving against Ciattarelli, with many people already having voted, it seems like it is too late to turn things around.”
That’s absurd. In fact, the poll’s results contradict of the conclusions of its pollster.
This particular survey was conducted between October 23rd through the 28th. That’s a large period of time, and since polls are snapshots of support, it’s completely normal to see support fluctuate from day-to-day among various groups as different members of a sample are interviewed. It doesn’t mean support is necessarily fluctuating. The entire point of this system is to eliminate as much “noise” as possible. FDU’s last poll is from June and therefore next-to-useless for comparison purposes, but if you want to compare this new one to something, Jack’s lead among independents has grown from 5-points to 17-points since the start of the summer.
You also really need to take a look at the primed vs. unprimed chart buried in the poll’s data tables section.
When you “prime” respondents, you give them some information about the candidate. “No prime” obviously means the opposite. Ciattarelli is only trailing Murphy by 2-points – and Phil Murphy is under the critical 50% mark (!) – among those who were told something about the candidates by the interviewer:
Ciattarelli’s lead among Indies is at 29-points with prime. That’s huge, and for what it’s worth, the RGA is currently pounding the airwaves and Jack is all over the air and Internet, too. Lots of potential and likely voters are being “primed” as we speak.
If Ciattarelli wins independents by 29-points? And the GOP bases turns out? He could win, especially if he can peel off more Dems than Murphy takes Republicans.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I am not predicting the final result! This was always going to be an uphill battle, and that hasn’t changed down the homestretch. I’m not in the business of pumping you all up with false hope or manipulative narratives loosely related to facts if at all (like the Media and university pollsters routinely do for the Democrat base).
I am telling you that the FDU poll does NOT suggest Murphy momentum any more than those anemic Murphy campaign crowds do.
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