They may be publicly celebrating polls showing Phil Murphy ahead by a high single digit margin, Save Jerseyans, but Democrats certainly aren’t spending like they’re comfortable. Following the money is almost always a more reliable method of handicapping these races.
For example, Building the Majority PAC (a pro-Democrat, union-funded political action committee) split $85,000 between four legislative districts on Friday: LD2, LD8, LD11 and LD16 according to a supplemental expenditure report filed with ELEC.
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Republicans were always ullish about their chances in 2 and 8. District 11 and especially 16 will come as a bit of a surprise to some, and this last minute injection of cash (spend on texts and digital ads) suggests Democrats are deeply concerned about Joe Biden’s rapidly sinking standing in New Jersey and the impact it could have on this year’s races.
Here’s the split:
These are panic buys, folks.
Democrats have already collectively spent MILLIONS between these districts. LD8 alone has seen congressional race-level investment.
None of this means the Democrats are going to lose. It does mean they’re very, very concerned in the final hours of this campaign cycle.
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