For much of the 20th century? South Jersey was solid red territory and home to one of the nation’s most infamous Republican machines based in Atlantic County (read Nelson Johnson’s Boardwalk Empire if you haven’t already). Outward migration from Philadelphia began to change the game in the final decades of the 20th century, and the rise of the Camden Machine in the 1990s pushed the lower half of the state further to the left.
The pendulum may be swinging back again.
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If you include Ocean County in your definition of South Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli is currently ahead there by 68,673 votes (427,531 to 358,858) coming out of Election 2021.
The 2021 gubernatorial race in South Jersey is practically tied if you back out Ocean, in which case Governor Murphy presently leads by less than 9,000 votes – on the strength of his Camden/Burlco margins – out of approximately 572,000 votes cast.
By contrast, back in 2017, Phil Murphy’s overall margin coming out of South Jersey – Atlantic, Burlington, Camdne, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and Salem counties – was 81,257 votes.
The LD1, LD2, LD3, and LD8 legislative delegations are now 100% Republican.
There’s still a “blue wall” along the Delaware River that keeps South Jersey from being truly “red.” The suburbs of Camden and newly-blue Burlington have gone in the opposite direction of their sister counties in recent years as white, college-educated suburban voters move leftward. For example, affluent Haddonfield (once home to the “country club Republican”) went 3,488 to 1,909 for Phil Murphy. Chris Christie pulled 62.1% of the vote in Haddonfield back in 2013.
Some working class Camden County burbs (like Bellmawr and Berlin) were far more competitive and symbolic of the Republican Party’s realignment as a mainstreet (as opposed to Wall Street) coalition in the post-Trump era.
The rural/non-rural distinction is growing. Burlington County went for Chris Christie in ’09 but not Ciattarelli this time around. Conversely, Cumberland County went for Jack by a solid margin after going against Christie 12 years ago.
Republicans clearly need to fine-tune the good work Glenn Youngkin did down in Virginia this year if they want to take South Jersey from purple-to-red in the cycles to come, but sitting here today, things are clearly back on track.
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