Updated 2/18/22 @ 12:04 p.m.
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A deal has been reached for a new N.J. legislative map, Save Jerseyans, and while details are still emerging, we know it’s unlikely to make much of a difference in who controls Trenton unless there’s a political tsunami in 2023 or 2025. There are nevertheless some interesting opportunities for Republicans which could threaten the size of the Democrat majority over the next few years.
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By way of background, New Jersey Republicans currently have incumbents the following districts: LD1, 2, 3, 8, 11, 21, 25, 26, 39. All nine have been targeted by one or both parties over the past decade.
Five of the nine districts get a little better under the new map for the GOP, and by “a little,” I mean very little. Three get a little worse, and one remains pretty much the same (Atlantic County’s LD2).
The only Republican-target district which gets significantly better is South Jersey’s LD4 where Democrat Senator Fred Madden, reelected with about 54% of the vote in 2021, must now decide whether to seek reelection in a district that’s about 3-to-3 1/2 points worse for his party based upon Jack Ciattarelli’s 2021 performance. South Jersey is trending “red” outside of the northern stretch of the I-295 corridor so that’s more potentially bad news for the South Jersey Machine.
LD16 is more indicative of the map’s modest changes to the current dynamic; it will become approximately 1-point better for the GOP, but the closest Republican challenger in 2021 (a solid year for New Jersey Republicans down-ballot) fell almost 2-points short.
LD36 is a bit of a sleeper; the Bergen-centric district (which also includes Passaic) gets 2-points better with more purple South Bergen territory. Ciattarelli lost the new district with a respectable 46-47%.
So what’s the bottom line? If 2023 is like 2021 or better for the GOP, Republicans could pick up a few seats (especially in LD4 which is currently 100% Democratic). Republicans had initially advanced a map that could’ve resulted in tied chambers or even a slim GOP majority under ideal political atmospheric conditions. Sources tell Save Jersey that Republican commissioners were worried that the involvement of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project, whose role in crafting a new congressional map was widely criticized, boded poorly for their prospects if the tiebreaker was forced to pick a map.
The map has at least one detractor on the redistricting commission: Tom Kean Jr. who we’re told plans to vote against it. We’ll give you more details when we have them.
The formal vote on the map will come tomorrow at 2pm on the State House.
