Unlike fellow “likely GOP” district LD1 at the opposite end of the state, LD39 isn’t really trending rightward. In fact, Joe Biden carried this relatively-affluent Bergen County outpost by 6-points in 2020. You know the story by now: there are wokesters inhabiting these suburbs whose parents voted Republican but, fresh from college indoctrination and wealthy enough to prioritize trans-ing kids over inflation, these voters make this district, at least on paper, a “swing district” (Biden +6, Ciattarelli +7).
Democrats accordingly went hard after LD39 in 2017 and again in 2019 but their punches never connected.
State Senator Holly Schepisi is a leader in the parental rights movement; in fact, the mother, attorney, and possible future statewide candidate was the first to expose Phil Murphy’s wacky sexualized curriculum standards. She’s also extremely skilled at using social media to directly communicate with her constituents, a rarity in a body inhabited by cobweb-adorned older legislators.
Her running mate Bob Auth is a well known commodity in the district and picks the right tough fights in Trenton. He’s one of the legislature’s most reliable conservative voices, and he recently announced the formation of a “Mothers for Liberty” caucus to continue the fight for parenal rights.
There is a newcomer on the ticket this year: Assembly candidate Dr. John Azziriti. Races without incumbents are always somewhat more likely to be competitive, but Azziriti leads a well-established practice in the district and has been a longtime supporter of both the GOP and community causes in Bergen County. He’s also well-established in GOP circles and is a good ideological fit for both his base and the ticket.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Barring an unforseen cataclysm, the LD39 seats are heavily favored to remain in GOP hands in 2023. However, Joe Biden’s decisive victory here, the fact that the district got SLIGHTLY bluer in redistricting (by 0.3% relative to the 2021 gubernatorial results), and the presence of a non-incumbent cumulatively prevent us from declaring LD39 “safe” for Republicans.
