We’ve been reminding you that New Jersey Republicans need upsets – a few of them – to tie or flip the Assembly in November. It’s not going to be easy, but the good news is that all of the major battlegrounds are moving in their direction (with the notable exceptions fo 36 and 30). That includes LD14…
LD14
Biden +18
Murphy +9
Senate: Likely DEM > No Change
Assembly: Likely DEM > Lean DEM
We wrote extensively a month ago about how if the GOP is to have a shot at a majority, it will need to pull an upset in a seemingly-unlikely place. If it’s going to happen anywhere, it’s probably here. The improved climate, coupled with the fact that LD36 is pretty much “off the map,” means that 14 is a place that’s suddenly looking more competitive and vital by the day and could attract some last minute TLC from Republicans ad buy decision-makers in the final few eeks.
Senator Linda Greenstein will be more difficult to topple barring a “red wave,” but let’s remember that one of the LD14 Assembly seats right now is “open” owing to Assemblyman Dan Benson’s retirement earlier this year. Open seats are almost always easier to pick off than incumbents’ seats for fairly obvious reasons.
Underpinning all of this is the fact that populous Hamilton is hosting a hotly contested local race at the moment. Hamilton used to be a lean-red town, but it’s gone lean-blue in the last decade for all of the usual educated-suburban-voters-went-woke reasons. I’m told the municipal GOP organization in Hamilton has put a good deal of its much-maligned infighting and dysfunction behind them which is promising and are running a strong ground game.
A stronger-than-typical GOP operation in Hamilton could provide a bit of a needed tailwind to the LD14 ticket because they really can’t win districtwide without running up numbers in Hamilton…
For now? There’s enough good happening for the GOP at 30,000 feet AND ground level to slide this district into the “lean” category which I define as: one party is slightly favored but the race is absolutely competitive. That’s huge for Republicans in a district dominated by state workers.
