There are PLENTY of interesting storylines and characters in play as Election 2025 get formerly underway, Save Jerseyans, so I put together a list of 25 of the most consequential as we evaluate the tremendous stakes for Republicans.
Are there other people who could be on this list? Yes. Including some potential candidates with whom Save Jersey but who haven’t given us permission to print anything yet regarding their intentions. We have integrity! Unlike the legacy guys and gals. So yes, as per usual, I know more than I can say. I also wanted to focus on the major electoral players for now; for obvious reasons, the gubernatorial primary and upcoming Assembly races dominate. There are many doing interesting things on the periphery of the cycle who will likely warrant attention from us down the road.
For a deeper dive into the Assembly side? In case you missed it, click here for my early overview of what should be the top GOP target districts.
With all of that being said…
- Jack Ciattarelli: There are two schools of thought on the 2021 nominee who’s been campaigning non-stop since 2016/2017: his closer-than-anticipated 3-point loss to Phil Murphy is something to brag about and a good argument for another shot OR something to be ashamed of (the implication being he should’ve won like Republicans did in Virginia). He probably begins this race as a slight favorite having had won a primary before, boasting solid name recognition with the base, sitting on a superior warchest than his rivals (in fact, he’s the only one with an ELEC report at the monent that looks gubernatorial), and nursing strong relationships with county organizations which will still be relevant in a primary. Ciattarelli probably loses some juice, however, with the end of county lines, arguably the #1 reason why the June
- Bill Spadea: The NJ 101.5 radio host hopes to leverage his celebrity in the station’s listening area (which includes vote-rich Republican counties like Monmouth and Ocean) and a close alliance with the vote-rich Ocean County GOP’s Chairman George Gilmore to emerge victorious from an increasingly crowded primary field. Spadea’s spent the past two years leveraging his Common Ground organization and his radio platform to build a grassroots army (we’ll soon see if it has evolved into a movement). Bill is charasmatic, handsome, witty, can “speak populist” but also inherits his main internal party patron’s political rivalries. He’s also taking high-powered fire from a Kellyanne Conway-backed Super PAC and may need to navigate around multiple other candidates vying for the MAGA crown. He’s undeniably Ciattarelli’s leading threat for the nomination… unless someone else nabbs the Trump endorsement?
-
Ed Durr Ed Durr: In an alternate universe where the one term ex-senator famous for toppling former Democrat Senate President Steve Sweeney with $6 in his pocket (I’m exaggerating, of course, but that’s how folk tales work) leveraged his 15 minutes of fame and Tucker Carleson appearances to raise tons of cash? Win reelection in 2023? And expand his political footprint? We might be talking about Ed Durr as a frontrunner for the 2025 gubernatorial nomination. But that didn’t happen, so while Durr should absolutely not be counted out in this present unsettled environment, he’s most likely positioned to play the role of spoiler for someone else.
- Jon Bramnick: For the openly anti-Trump and Murphy-loving Union County Republican to win the nomination? Maybe saying he need a miracle is an exaggeration, Save Jerseyans, but the path is pretty narrow in the current environment. He’s probably going to need the rest of the field to find itself (1) crowded and (2) bogged down in a proverbial bloodbath over who is the “MAGA” candidate without any clear leader heading into the June primary vote. It could happen, I guess, and in this hypothetical scenario, Bramnick powers to the nomination with 30-35% of the June vote. Bramnick’s ultimate challenge will be explaining how his consistent and harsh criticism of Trump and Trumpism holds up after the President-elect just scored the closest GOP finish in a New Jersey presidential contest since 1992. Bramnick and his allies have argued for years that Trump was holding us back… that thesis has been definitively disproven by November’s results. Another interesting twist: his home county (Union) party recently fired the long-serving chairman who was loyal to him. The new chair – Carlos Santos – is solidly pro-Trump and not on Team Bramnick.
- Mike Crispi: The smack-talking podcaster and talented MAGA activist earned a shoutout from President Trump at last May’s Wildwood beach rally for his energetic, MAGA-perfect speech. He’s been steadily building a larger following ever since, and he’s now exploring entry into the unsettled 2025 GOP gubernatorial primary. If he’s serious, Crispi could upend the contest by siphoning MAGA support from Bill Spadea (whose general consultant in Trump’s former campaign manager) and Ed “The Trucker” Durr whose popular with some anti-establishment Republicans. Crispi could possibly fetch a Trump endorsement or deny another candidate from nabbing it (Spadea came close last spring). Either way, the 20-something whose spirit guide is none other than the legendary Roger Stone is clearly setting himself up for an enhanced political profile of some sort on the other side. It’s also dangerous to bet against Roger if his protege goes all-in.
- Mike Testa Jr.: Vineland’s resident legislator is one of two New Jersey senators reportedly under consideration to serve as our state’s new U.S. Attorney; the other widely-discussed candidate is his ally, state Senator Doug Steinhard of Warren County. It’s a high profile position – depending upon what you do with it – which has been used in the very recent past as a springboard for even bigger things (see: Chris Christie 2009).
- Doug Steinhardt: See above.
- Antwan McClellan: The GOP Assembly whip from Senator Testa’s district (LD1), McClellan is a well-liked black Republican both inside and outside of Trenton at a time when the Grand Old Party’s tent is growing and looking for next generation leaders. His reelection in Trump-strong LD1 isn’t seriously in question, so the only question might be “what’s next” for McClellan. He was under consideration for Ciattarelli’s lieutenant governor running mate in 2021, and many believe he made a mistake by opting instead for the older, more moderate Diane Allen. Could McClellan go statewide this year?
- Adam Wingate: The millennial Glouco GOP chair held onto both of his commissioner seats in 2024, setting up a control race in 2025 for South Jersey’s #1 swing county and the most important protectorate county of the Camden County-based South Jersey Democrat Machine. Riding on the momentum of a Trump victory at the county level, could this be the year Gloucester Republicans finally retake Woodbury?
-
Mike Crispi Peter Murphy: The biggest county-level story in Election 2024? Donald Trump carrying Passaic County, formerly a blue bastion. The famously reclusive Peter Murphy of Totowa, a GOTV expert, leads the Passaic GOP while holding court and his famous bar and now finds himself in a position to potentially capitalize on the diverse North Jersey jurisdiction’s rightward shift.
- George Gilmore: Ocean County’s Republican chairman survived a federal tax prosecution, obtained a presidential pardon, and is now once again a significant player in state politics. Why? Well, while he’s no longer the ‘first among equals’ that he once was among GOP chairmen during the Christie era, Ocean remains the state’s single richest pot of Republican primary votes… period. Gilmore went all-in on Spadea for Governor in advance of 2025, so his future as a top state Republican powerbroker may to some degree ride on Spadea’s own fortunes over the next few to several months.
- Jonathan Sammons: The now former black Republican sheriff of Gloucester County lost a very narrow reelection fight in November. He had a tough race against the former Democrat sheriff, so in some ways, Sammons didn’t have an incumbency advantage. It’s hard to find anyone who doesn’t personally like the man in this relatively close knit South Jersey county. He’s also got a story to tell after battling the Machine for an entire term, and the affable and capable Sammons remains a very viable candidate for future campaigns if and when he’s ready for another bite at the apple.
- John DiMaio: The Assembly GOP minority leader, DiMaio is the general in charge of picking up as many seats as possible – and defending any that are vulernable – heading into next November through Assembly Republican Victory (ARV), the state equivalent of the NRCC. He’s got a big job ahead and will want to show progress.
- Chris Russell: Now the senior statesman among NJGOP operatives Russell has successfully helped candidates at the local, county, legislative and congressional levels grab the big brass ring. He came within 3-points of winning a gubernatorial contest in 2021 (via Jack Ciattarelli) but came up short. Ciattarelli is running against in 2o25, and interestingly, Russell’s former business partner and current client (NY Congressman Mike Lawler) may run for New York governor in 2026. Russell may be quaterbacking gubernatorial contests in two massive adjoining states in consecutive years. Stay tuned…
- Bill Stepien. Chris Christie’s former campaign manager has been on a helluva ride since 2009. That’s not an overstatement. He temporarily fell off the map when Christie made him a sacrificial lamb in the early days of the Bridgegate scandal. George Gilmore (see above) gave him a ton of work during the darker days of his post-Bridgegate career, but betting on Donald Trump in 2016 earned him the campaign manager spot and, after an historic win, the coveted White House political director position. Now he’s running a consultancy operation, and Bill Spadea’s 2025 campaign is a significant part of his current portfolio. Can Stepien make state political history again by helping two different men (Christie and now Spadea) reach Drumthwacket?
- Brian Thomas. Republicans need an LD11 slate and this guy could be half of the equation. He’s currently a millennial councilman for Neptune City (a smallish swing town), but Brian Thomas – the current Director of Policy & Legislation for the LD13 Assembly members – grew up in and graduated high school from Neptune TOWNSHIP, the far more populous of the two communities and also the more heavily African American. If Monmouth Republicans partner Brian with a Hispanic running mate (there are large Hispanic populations in Freehold Borough, Red Bank and Long Branch) or an African American running mate (again, there is a robust black population in Neptune Township as well as Asbury Park), then you could see a very formidable ticket develop capable of flipping two seats back to the R column and, hopefully, setting up another shot at ending Vin Gopal’s political career in 2027.
-
Jeff Van Drew Jeff Van Drew. He didn’t end up transitioning to an administration role as many suspected he would, but the 71-year-old South Jersey Democrat turned Republican MAGA stalwart remains one of President Trump’s most reliable allies on Congress and a strong voice for the new Republican movement. Van Drew is likely to play a role in most of the big Capitol Hill battles to come over the next two years, and he’s got a direct line to the man in the White House. That makes him important beyond his title.
- Brandon Umba. He’s a veteran municipal administrator who served one term in the Assembly before losing an upsettingly tight reelection bid in 2023. He’s running again in 2025 with party support in LD8, the state’s only district with split representation at the moment and a true swing district (Kamala Harris prevailed in this suburban Philly outpost by about 1-point). Can the Medford millennial Republican successfully retake his seat along with his former district mate, incumbent Republican Mike Torrissi? Either way, we can pretty safely bet on a competitive and potentially very close finish.
- Michael Torrissi. See above.
- Don Guardian. The former mayor of Atlantic City (one of the few who didn’t go to jail) is, along with his district mate Claire Swift, LD-8’s Mike Torrissi (see above), and the LD21 Republican incumbents, one of only five Republican Assemblymembers in the entire state who represent districts that went for Kamala Harris… albeit by less than 2-points. Democrats don’t have much a farm team in Atlantic County thanks to the efforts of Don Purdy’s aggressive organization, but it’s hard to imagine that Democrats can ignore this district completely given it’s purple character unless Democrats’ own list of defense priorities elsewhere overwhelms their ambition and stretches their formidable resources.
- Claire Swift. See above.
- Michele Matsikoudis. A “moderate” or centrist Republican like her fellow LD8 legislator Nancy Munoz and ’23 running mate, state Senator Jon Bramnick, Matsikoudis’s district went for Kamala Harris by more than 12-points in November. Westfield used to be the heartland of the Country Club Republican. Now it’s a woke New York suburb full of affluent white professionals who can afford to vote their “values” over the cost of milk, eggs, and gas. With Bramnick (a prolific fundraiser) absent from the legislative race in 2025 and distracted by his own gubernatorial bid, is this the year that Democrats complete their conquest of Union County’s formerly red but increasingly left-of-center suburbs? Matsikoudis and Munoz will find out soon enough.
- Nancy Munoz. See above.
- Eric Arpert. Jack Ciattarelli’s baby-faced long-time campaign manager is a talented operator and already well-circulated in all 21 counties having stuck by Ciattarelli’s side over many years of gubernatorial campaigning, but Arpert could find himself among the state’s most influential R’s should his boss finally win the big prize in November.
- Tom Bonfonti. Bill Spadea’s campaign manager is very much a product of the Gilmore Ocean County political organization, and he learned well from both Gilmore (a seasoned insider/operator) and Stepien (see above), a wiz at political tactics. Similar to his 2025 campaign-side rival Arpert, he’s on the brink of taking his career as an operative to the next level assuming, of course, that it’s Spadea who emerges victorious from the coming intra-party war.
