We have more confirmation that Election 2025 is a real race, Save Jerseyans, and it’s coming from an unlikely source.
A new Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) poll reports a single digit race between Democrat Mikie Sherill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Sherrill is ahead by 8-points (45% to 37%) with a large amount of undecided voters (16%).
There’s plenty of reason to assume FDU is overestimating Sherrill’s support or almost certainly underestimating Ciattarelli’s. Surprise! FDU tends to skew Left like most university polling outfits. A relevant example: back in June 2021, Ciattarelli trailed Phil Murphy by 15-points (48% to 33%). Murphy went on to win in November by only 3-points despite the final late October survey alleging a 9-point Murphy lead. So it’s entirely reasonable to assume an FDU poll is a few (or several) points too “blue.”
Overall, it appears the gubernatorial race is settling into a single-digit contest over the summer months. Both the Ciattarelli campaign’s internal polling and a survey conducted by Kellyanne Conway reported 3-point and 5-point deficits, respectively. There hasn’t been any other reliable polling released to date.
Here’s the full polling report:
NJ_Gov_Release_July_2025
